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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ralph keating who wrote (1451)	1/24/1998 7:35:00 PM
From: Roger A. Babb	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

Ralph, shorting CFON looks like free money, I now have a significant position. I have shorted AVNT when it was higher priced, but no position now.

To: ralph keating who wrote (1451)	1/24/1998 9:13:00 PM
From: Dan Ross	Respond to of 18691

I haven't looked into CFON but will immediately..... Regarding DSL and video conferencing.....for HDTV you need 16 Mb p/s....with ADSL you get a MAX of 8 Mb p/s....And that depends on how close you are to the closest DLC (digital loop carrier).... Let me elaborate for those that don't know this stuff in depth..... Your phone call goes through a central office switch.....That is where NT and LU make the big bucks....providing line cards, sofware upgrades etc to the baby bells.... Getting back to the point....you pick up your phone and dial a #....your signal from your phone travels through copper wire to a DLC...from the DLC to the central office FIBER OPTIC wire is run....Additionally, your local switch is connected to long-distance switches and other switches via fiber optics...AKA...HUGE BANDWIDTH POTENTIAL...however, from the DLC to your home the copper wire is hindering your bandwidth capabilities.....the closer you are to the DLC the better due to less noise interference to degrade the signal being sent through the system....Distances vary dramatically based on urban or rural areas...additioanlly, congestion normally effects how many people and the distance from the DLC..... Q: Guess who knows the distance the best to provide DSL service? A: If you guessed your local RBOC, YOU ARE RIGHT!!!! Getting back to my point again, different applications take different amounts of bandwidth and effect what type of hardware/software requirements you need.....ADSL can be from 1-8 Mb p/s.... Sound like a huge variation? It is....Ideally the modem companies would like to get you to upgrade your modem from 1-2 to 4 to 8 Mb p/s....Perhaps they will charge for the software upgrade ..More than likely it will be free due to competition..the software is for the DSP chip....the good ones are software upgradeable.... Anyways, straying again......HDTV, the KILLER APPLICATION FOR THE RBOCS in the future, requires 16 Mb p/s....ADSL can't work at this speed....>VDSL can....but currently only at distances of 500 ft which is NOTHING.....I'm not sure about videoconferencing but I bet that you can send it via ADSL.....there is no reason why they can't at the rates ADSL promises.....remember that multiplexing is here to stay.... I'll look into it more Dan Ross

To: ralph keating who wrote (1451)	1/24/1998 9:18:00 PM
From: Dan Ross	Respond to of 18691

Just one more point... from the link that ralph gave... <<or another, DSL service, at rumored introductory rates of $50 a month, would cannibalize demand for a service called "T-1" that's nicely profitable today for phone companies at $600 a month.>> THIS IS VERY TRUE....RBOCS are crapping in their pants....many people have upgraded to 2-3 lines per household....ADSL jeopardizes it.....also, T-1 lines cost MUCHO DINERO....it is clean line though...no noise interference but VERY EXPENSIVE....this will cannibalize this product line also.... BUT, if they don't do this they will get CLOBBERED by Cable companies looking for extra $$$.....they have nothing to lose....For this reason, I am suprised that the cable companies have been so slow.... Dan Ross