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Strategies & Market Trends : Natural Resource Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: isopatch who wrote (96553)	1/24/2020 6:48:59 PM
From: Andrewagain	2 Recommendations Recommended By isopatch roguedolphin Respond to of 108514

Yes no where to hide, getting nasty out there. Capital preservation key. Better to spend time on research and sit on hands. Did some repositioning earlier in the week, shifted some funds from oil sector into precious metal miners but clearly did not go far enough as now stopped out of half my remaining oil positions. I force myself to put in stops at time of purchase as I have learnt the hard way the danger of emotion getting in the way of capital preservation, but it still sucks. With that said, WTI, price is now at very bottom of symmetrical triangle formed from may 2019 to present, and it could be argued violated it when we fell below $55, either way we are at critical juncture. As you mentioned quite possible the fall in oil is more because of weak economy then the coronavirus. Alternatively the threat of coronavirus is worse than portrayed. Time will tell. But no matter which or what combination the charts are the final arbiter, and I treat them as smarter than me.Shocking how 1 million barrels offline in Libya and Iraq protests to boot completely discounted by market. The baltic dry index, as well as the CRB index tell a dismal tale. I know very little about crack spreads, but seems to me looking at chart either distillates had to rise in price or crude fall to solve the low spread. In this case demand was not strong enough to increase distillate price so crude fell, not bullish at all. At present holding cash from stopped out positions. Would like to buy things like NEM more FSM maybe some KGC but sitting on my hands for now. I really like the silver chart, alot of similarities to palladium chart back in the fall which was explosive. That said, I hate to chase these stocks as tend to take out stop losses when least expected. Silver is still not decisively staying above $18 which worries me. Gold has behaved much better imo, defending key support at 1500 and now 1550 quite admirably. Regarding coronovirus. Have been stocking up on groceries, gas etc.. as a precaution, to reduce need to mingle with others . Seems prudent. Clearly this is not contained and now cannot be. It is everywhere by now. This will definitely impact peoples behavour and negatively impact the economy months to come. As for Encana. No where to hide, very well said. Still hold core position. Downgraded by Cowen, just added to the pain today. One of the reasons a core position was my opinion ECA would be bought out this year once it became an American company based upon its financial metrics, holdings, condensates, moderate market cap relative to majors, making it attractive to companies such as chevron. Figured $6 plus. This seems to be falling out of reach because would mean a 50% premium over present valuation making a merger increasingly possible, wish I knew more about ramifications of a merger scenario. COP Support at 57.50