Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : US Inflation and What To Do About It -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Vosilla who wrote (1343)	1/24/2020 9:00:22 PM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1504

Boy, I sure do hope you are right. One thing in favor of your forecast is the Fed's tendency to keep rates so low and print money. That will keep the wind behind the sails of the RE markets for years to come, unless they have to start raising to fight inflation. However, Powell has stated explicitly that they are willing to let inflation run hot over 2% for awhile, before they will reign it in, because they say that will counteract the inflation running below their target for so many years. Of course, they aren't measuring inflation correctly, but that won't stop them. So they will blow this RE bubble to gigantic proportions. I think short dated bonds, gold, and RE (especially in the high end) are going to continue to be great places to protect your wealth from the Fed's craziness. If we see Powell change course, then we should talk about this again and figure out what the will mean. Your thesis on the millennials is a really interesting one and has a great deal of merit. They are going to be inheriting a lot of money from the boomers over the next 20 years, so that should also act as a wind behind their sails as they buy more real estate and pay down their mortgage debt.

To: John Vosilla who wrote (1343)	1/27/2020 9:03:26 PM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1504

Is this the crack in the real estate market I've been looking for? --------- "Prices Start To Sink At Record Paces" - Manhattan Luxury Home Prices Plunge To 2013 Levels Luxury home prices in Manhattan continue to decline, pressured by Bill de Blasio's " Mansion Tax" and the capping of SALT deductions included in President Trump's tax deal. Prices of these luxury homes, which constitute the top 20% of the market, fell to their lowest levels since 2013, according to a new report via StreetEasy. Luxury homes, priced at or above $3,816,835, dropped 6.1% in the fourth quarter over the previous year. Sellers are beginning to accept a declining market that has shifted to buyers -- where prices are being negotiated to the low end – in return, this has created downward momentum in prices. StreetEasy said inventory soared last quarter by 12.2% over the previous year, with at least 4,354 luxury homes sitting on the market. "With so much new construction saturating the Manhattan real estate market, we were bound to see prices start to sink at record paces," said StreetEasy Economist Nancy Wu. "This is happening across all price points and boroughs, as prospective buyers wait out the market from the comfort of their rentals. Market dynamics in 2020 will continue to favor the buyer across all price tiers, and many sellers will have to face the fact that if they want to sell, it may very well be for less than their initial asking price," Wu said. For all homes in the borough, the StreetEasy Manhattan Price Index fell 3.7% last quarter over the prior year, to $1,086,217. Inventory for homes in the district rose 3%, with homes staying on the market for at least 96 days, ten more than the prior year. The report notes that it's a buyer's market as inventory continues to build. The Median Asking Price Per Square Footage (PPSF) for Manhattan homes jumped 80% from $1,000 in 2010 to $1,800 in 2015 – has since declined 14% to $1,550. Total Sales Inventory for Manhattan homes has been surging in the last five years. With a decade-long economic boom starting to wane as the Federal Reserve cuts rates three times and injects hundreds of billions of dollars in emergency funds into REPO markets, sparking potential blow-off tops in stocks-- everybody's anxieties about a persistent slowdown could continue to weigh on luxury real estate in New York and elsewhere.