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Strategies & Market Trends : Point and Figure Charting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: da_cheif™ who wrote (32711)	1/25/2020 9:40:30 PM
From: Underexposed	1 Recommendation Recommended By Don Green Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 34822

from wat i know of fintas.....he may be gone......i hope not....but I had similar thoughts... either gone or severely sick. Fintas and I had our difficulties mainly over the fate of GE when it was in the $20 range. But we did share a liking for P&F charts though I did have trouble really understanding some of his methods of interpretation and he was not all that clear on explaining his conclusions... He followed pretty much everything Dorsey did and that included his work on Relative Strength and Momentum. I stopped at P&F charting which I have used since the middle 1980's and never ventured into those latter Dorsey studies and I integrated P&F into my other TA studies. Our head butting seemed unresolvable and we basically ignored each other for at least 6 months. Anyways I digress.... I wish he would come back so that we could bury that axe and be friendly again. This thread has departed greatly from what Fintas had built up... there is no formal Emcc for this thread but Fintas was the person who defined this thread. About a week ago I gave my TA assessment on S&P 500 large cap [$SPX] Back then the coronavirus virus was not headlines at that time....but that was then and now it is on the verge of being a global problem. The question is: Is this going to cause a financial meltdown or is it just the correction that many feel is coming. Here is my TA on the situation as I see it today. I ended my previous analysis by saying the following Certainly the S&P500 will eventually falter but since the index is at an all-time high it is hard to predict when. World conditions certainly affect stock market performance but so far all three major USA indexes agree... the market is still bullish.... I doubt you will see a plummet of say 10-15% in a single day....probably what will happen is the share value will stop at some height....rise and fall in a consolidation period and if it is going to fall it will drift negatively in that consolidation. My Trigger charts do not show such a hesitation at all well the world condition has changed with that Chinese virus growing and spreading globally. My charts are reflecting this but not in an apocalyptic way ....not at this early stage anyway. The P&F chart shows a less than 1% drop on Friday...a 30 point drop.....not the stuff of Chicken little. You see some pretty strong supports - a horizontal Plus diagonal support which combined make this a tough barrier to pass.....IF THIS SUPPORT IS BREACHED...well it would not be good My Trigger chart is interesting. This is not the first rodeo for a S&P500 correction. The worst happened last August as shown in the circle on the left. That was a drop of about 200 points in about 5 days. That is NOT what is interesting....check out the Slow Sto / MACD / BBWidth during that period.... see the dramatic drop in the Slow Sto and MACD combined with a huge change in the BBWidth slope to the positive......That is what a SELL signal looks like...Sudden fall of Slow Sto and MACD combined with a sudden rise of the BBWidth. Now look at the next large circle on Dec/2019...It is a similar 2 day drop as we have today.... but look at the Slow Sto and MACD...they are both quite muted and the BBWith was NOT rising...it was still falling.... This is not a sell sign....the BBWidth MUST change to a positive slope which it did a couple of weeks later but look at the Slow Sto and MACD then...both are rising... that was a buy signal NOW...look at the current indicators in the circle on the right That 1% drop on Friday, caused hardly a down tick to both the Slow Sto and MACD..... The BBwidth was climbing until this drop happened and it shows a possibility of a down turn in the Indicator...not an uptick (ie: the Bollinger bands were not expanding). This share price is showing it is in Consolidation...not a plummet.... when a stock is in consolidation it migrates to the 20daySMA (dotted green line)... from there it will tend to oscillate around that 20daySMA. The result of the consolidation period may be a further fall but it is premature to suggest a major decline at this point Let's look at 2 more charts My Sentiment chart on the left does not show any alarm issues.....I ignore the Parabolic Sar in the main chart unless it is in the throat of a Bollie squeeze. The indicators below are less bullish than before but not bearish by any imagination...for example the ADX DI+/- would be bearish if it looked like it did back on Aug 2019...you see the bearish cross of the red above the green.... it might happen in a week or so...maybe. The Ichomoku chart shows nothing bearish at all CONCLUSION Other stocks seem to be reacting stronger than the indexes...so far anyway. I don't doubt that profit taking will drive a significant correction. How dramatic this would be remains to be seen. I doubt this is nothing more than a long awaited correction....not a financial meltdown. Many would look at this situation to add to their holdings at a lower price. I might do so but it would be based on an analysis of individual stocks...not a general practice. UE