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Strategies & Market Trends : US Inflation and What To Do About It -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rarebird who wrote (1349)	1/27/2020 9:02:23 PM
From: RetiredNow	Respond to of 1504

I don't know. I've made great and steady money over the last couple of years without any stress from the rollercoaster. So if that's being wrong, then I'm happy for it. But as you pointed out and as I have pointed out, this market has been outrageously overbought and was due for a correction. The catalyst could have been anything really. It just happened to be the corona virus. You may think this is going way in a month or two, but I don't think so. We're still going to be concerned about the corona virus for the next 6 months at least. That's my guess. This could be the very worst thing to happen to Trump, because it's already impacting the supply chain, as people are being sent home and trade routes are getting shut down and disrupted. This is having a far bigger impact to the real economy than you think. It's not just the stock market that its damaging. Also, this comes at a time when certain real estate markets have been overbuilt, so if the consumer is over leveraged and weak, manufacturing and supply chains are in a recession, real estate is looking very shaky, and now China is about to get a gut punch to their economy, then you tell me where the growth is going to come from. Oh, did I mention that the US gov't is ramping up trust busters mightily to go after the top tech companies? That's don't going to play well for the S&P500, since most of that indexes gains come from the big tech companies. Anyone who is buying and holding is going to get burned. I think you will survive and maybe even thrive, since you are a trader. I too will survive and thrive, since my short bonds and gold are doing great. I'm now sitting on a 4.8% return on my gold purchases since the beginning of the year. I'd say that was a nice trade, if I didn't quite buy as much as I would have liked. Ah well. This broken clock has been doing quite well, thank you.

To: Rarebird who wrote (1349)	1/31/2020 11:47:25 AM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1504

You know, you said I was a contrarian indicator, but I'm not sure you know what that means. A contrarian indicator is when someone or something tells you something and then the opposite happens. And yet, the last two times I warned that we were in for a correction was in 2018 and then again this time. If you had traded on what I had said, you would have made good money, since you say you are a trader. I bet my own book too, but I am not a trader. Right now, roughly, I am invested in money markets (34%), low duration Treasuries(40%), physical real estate (25%), and lastly gold+silver (1%). I will increase my gold/silver position to 5% over the next 11 months. I'm up 5% on my gold & silver positions YTD. Not bad. Here's my next prediction. The corona virus is not going away anytime soon. It will continue to create a lot of havoc with supply chains, as the world cuts China off. It has ALREADY gummed up supply chains and that will accelerate corporate plans to move out of China. You are looking at the Black Swan we all knew was coming. We didn't know it would be a virus, but this market simply needed any catalyst to sell off. We have one now. We also have the Bernie effect. The higher he rises in the polls, the more spooked Wall Street will get. This correction will continue with fits and starts. It will recover and then the next day, more news of the acceleration of the corona virus will smack it back down. Overall, we'll continue to correct until we see at least a 20% correction from the highs. If the real economic impact of the virus is severe, which I believe it will be, then we could see a more severe correction to 40% off the peaks. Just telling the thread this in advance. I'm sleeping well at night with my portfolio intact from this latest crisis. I hope you can make money off the volatility. You'll surely get plenty this year, as it will take at least until late summer before they have a vaccine for the virus. Until then, things are going to get much worse. God help us all.