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To: donald sew who wrote (34032)	1/25/1998 12:11:00 AM
From: MonsieurGonzo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 58727

Donald; RE:" Why Green Bay Will Win " Perhaps the most interesting development since the blow-off (down) on 12-JAN is the reversal in commodities and currencies. CL98G - Crude Oil Futures, and HG98H Copper are finding supports. DX98H - the dollar index, ( essentially an upside-down version of DM98H, FR98H and JY98H ) shows a really pretty Evening Doji Star (or Morning Star on the inverse) and a rapid decline in the dollar's value. I transferred USD to my bank in Paris for FFrancs when I saw the star. TYX.X - the Long Bond made its Morning Star on 12-JAN, precisely. After observing for months this strange phenomenon where the cost of capital was going down, while equities were also going down - which is strange - now the cost of capital is going up. How are we to interpret this ? Capital leaving bonds for beginning of the year "asset allocation" into equities ? Or is it leaving the "long" end of Treasuries and going into the "short" end ? Bubba's Bimbos Effect ? ( Sometimes it's good to be a Frenchman ;-) The DJ Utility Index has some top-reversal candlesticks, Donald - as the TRANS (specifically XAL.X) did a few days ago. I find these changes in commodities, currencies and capital apparent, but I do not know what they portend. DJIA is in a trading range; the intermediate trend is down, and the 3-day, short-term trend is down. So long as the market remains in a trading range, the kind of "wave" trading that you and I are doing will continue to be very profitable. Especially when we "pick off" the Sector Indices - where the premiums are in our favour. We must be careful not to get over-eager. Your PUT on the NDX.X was, in my opinion, out of character - it's earnings season; INTC and DELL/CPQ are in clear, bullish momentum UpTrends, and MSFT earnings time is no time to take any position on the NAZ. More Donald/Steve are the long positions we took on the OSX.X when it hit 89, and the short positions on the XAL.X when it hit 700. Your CALL on the NIK.X was also brilliant. Like professional pool players, who do not make "difficult" shots, rather - they make a lot of easy ones, pop - pop - pop... what you and I want to (continue) to do is wait for our shots and then let the 'killer instinct' take over. Pace yourself, baby - you're doing great! Pick your shots. -Steve PS - Why Green Bay? Oh yeah: D-E-F-E-N-S-E (^_^)