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Technology Stocks : AMD, ARMH, INTC, NVDA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vattila who wrote (35059)	1/30/2020 11:34:31 AM
From: neolib	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 72296

Thanks for running the contest. I've been gone for a couple of weeks to the jungles of Costa Rica again. Had a nice time, but I really need to plan these trips to avoid AMD earnings! I miss too much excitement! Did anyone listen to the CC and was there any good "color" on anything? I've just read the PR from AMD, and one thing that really jumped out at me is the use of "negligible revenue" from consoles in the current quarter. Is it really the case that a business segment which was cr $600M/qtr a few years back has gone to zero?? No wonder AMD refuses to have transparency in their business segment reporting! IMHO, the report wasn't too bad, but of course the runnup in the stock has been pretty extreme. YOY full year growth projections ain't too bad either at 28-30%, that is near $2B increase in sales for the year. It looks like CPU traction is pretty good, given the C&G sales of over 1.6B last Qtr, and mostly the increase attributed to CPU not GPU. CPU was thus close to $1B last Qtr I would hazard, quite the reverse back in the peak of the bitcoin craze. I wish those numbers were reflected better in what is available at retail. But they are selling them to someone. Did they provide any hints of numbers for server CPU marketshare, and the 10% point which should be by the end of 1H20? IMHO, the server revenue seems to be growing slower than all the noise has hinted at. But this goes back to Lisa's comments now from some time back, that Ryzen was the growth driver through about 1H20. Seems to be the case, despite most of us thinking AMD would hand Intel their head in data center.

To: Vattila who wrote (35059)

4/1/2020 8:00:52 PM

From: Vattila

Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 72296

Time to play again:

AMD 2020-Q1 EPS Contest (non-GAAP)

User	Revenue	EPS	Q2 Outlook
Vattila	$1.78B	$0.19	$1.95B

PS. Post your numbers to participate!

Background Information

AMD's Q1 outlook: $1.80B ± 0.05B revenue (lower end of range now expected, due to Covid-19)
Analyst consensus/whisper: $0.14/(N/A) EPS
Zacks Detailed Estimates: $1.77B revenue, $0.18 EPS, $1.92B Q2 outlook

---

Summary of previous contests:

Overall Scores 2019

Rank	User	Entries	EPS score	Revenue score	Outlook score	Overall score
-	Zacks Estimate	4	0.99	0.97	0.96	0.9708
1	Vattila	4	0.98	0.96	0.84	0.9264
2	Pravin Kamdar	4	0.98	0.95	0.84	0.9258
3	rzborusa	3	0.73	0.70	0.70	0.7106
4	neolib	3	0.73	0.72	0.65	0.6977
5	knykny	2	0.49	0.46	0.40	0.4496
6	gzubeck	2	0.46	0.37	0.32	0.3822
7	THE WATSONYOUTH	1	0.25	0.24	0.25	0.2468
8	FUBHO	1	0.21	0.20	0.25	0.2199
9	Harvey Allen	1	0.20	0.17	0.25	0.2058

Quarterly Average 2019

Rank	User	Entries	EPS score	Revenue score	Outlook score	Overall score
1	THE WATSONYOUTH	1	1.00	0.96	1.00	0.9871
-	Zacks Estimate	4	0.99	0.97	0.96	0.9708
2	rzborusa	3	0.97	0.93	0.94	0.9475
3	neolib	3	0.97	0.96	0.87	0.9303
4	Vattila	4	0.98	0.96	0.84	0.9264
5	Pravin Kamdar	4	0.98	0.95	0.84	0.9258
6	knykny	2	0.97	0.93	0.80	0.8991
7	FUBHO	1	0.84	0.80	1.00	0.8796
8	Harvey Allen	1	0.80	0.67	1.00	0.8230
9	gzubeck	2	0.92	0.73	0.64	0.7643

To: Vattila who wrote (35059)

1/26/2021 5:06:42 PM

From: Vattila

Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 72296

AMD 2020 EPS Contest Scores

Here is the summary of our predictive powers on this board. We beat Zacks!

2020 Full year scores

Rank	User	Entries	EPS score	Revenue score	Outlook score	Overall score
1	Vattila	4	0.95	0.85	0.65	0.8169
2	neolib	4	0.98	0.80	0.61	0.7972
-	Zacks Estimate	4	0.94	0.79	0.62	0.7856
3	Pravin Kamdar	3	0.72	0.62	0.50	0.6128
4	rzborusa	3	0.69	0.57	0.47	0.5812
5	Kelvin C.P. Wang	1	0.24	0.23	0.17	0.2150
6	jc474	1	0.23	0.19	0.19	0.2020

2020 Quarterly average

Rank	User	Entries	EPS score	Revenue score	Outlook score	Overall score
1	Kelvin C.P. Wang	1	0.96	0.92	0.69	0.8601
2	Pravin Kamdar	3	0.96	0.83	0.66	0.8171
3	Vattila	4	0.95	0.85	0.65	0.8169
4	jc474	1	0.92	0.74	0.76	0.8080
5	neolib	4	0.98	0.80	0.61	0.7972
-	Zacks Estimate	4	0.94	0.79	0.62	0.7856
6	rzborusa	3	0.93	0.76	0.63	0.7749

Note that, scores are calculated as (1+error)^-2 per quarter and normalized for the year by sum(scores)/4. The squaring of the denominator in the score calculation is just done to spread out the scores a little. There is no explicit relative weighting of EPS and revenue error, i.e. a 1 cent error in EPS equals a $10M error in revenue. This is unlike the quarterly EPS contest, where EPS has the highest significance for ranking purposes, followed by revenue and outlook, respectively.

PS. Follow reply link to message #35066 for 2019 full year scores.