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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Judy who wrote (15160)	1/25/1998 5:40:00 PM
From: Ms. X	Respond to of 68127

Hi Judy, You can call me Jan. I've had many names so far on this site. I keep checking the NYSEBP to see if any change is on the rise. It was firming up but it is slow. I'll keep you posted. Sorry about the typo on ASTSF. They have been trading well above their bullish support line. Their last buy signal was at 71 which was a spread triple top. Since then, it has moved strait up to 88. Someone knew before the news that something good was happening. Wish I caught this one on that spread triple top buy. Still keeping it in my file.Sounds as if the FA is there. TA looks great to. Might be one to seriously consider long term. I'll be in touch tomorrow after market close with any indicator changes. All the best...

To: Judy who wrote (15160)	1/25/1998 5:43:00 PM
From: Ms. X	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 68127

Thought I would send you Dorsey's comment on Intel and options (general). This was a response to a specific question regarding Intels relative strength (Point and Figure thread). /// Remember this is an art not a science. In my book I mention that changes in columns is more important than the signals themselves. Reason for this is: in many cases a strong stock has a long rise in X's on the RS chart. When it changes trend, the reversal happens first into a column of O's then it declines. If the X column is long, then it takes a major decline in the stock to reach the point where the column of O's exceeds a previous column of O's. By that time, the move is over. INTC changed columns in August before the sector reversed, right on the money. This change is not one of those long column of X's I just talked about but the decline in O's is long enough to suggest a reversal of sorts. The reversal might be of the few months duration. INTC would then be a trading stock followed up with stops and if it turned into a long term play then great. The RS chart in Semiconductors SOX verses the SPX is very negative and another reason for caution. Buy INTC on pullbacks with stops on new bottoms. If playing calls, buy in the money and only as many as you would otherwise have an appetite for round lots. Take one of two approaches. Consider the option price your stop. This allows you to stay for the whole ride to expiration. If you take this approach do not consider even looking at the option until the third friday of the expiration month. Next you could take the stock substitute approach and stop the option where you would stop the stock. T > Never average down in options. It's the kiss of death. Consider Michael Jordan. Lets say he is a 70% free throw shooter. He is given a personal foul where he can take two shots at the basket. At 70% he is a 49% probability of getting both shots. That is .7x.7=.49. You as an investor have the same problem you have to successfully complete two independent events to be successful at stocks. You must buy the stock right and sell it right. If you are a 70% stock picker you have a 49% chance of success. In options, you take this two steps further. You must select the right expiration date and the right expiration price. If you can do both of those right 70% of the time you have .7x.7x.7x.7 or 24% chance of success. This is why it is important to use in the moneys as stock substitutes, buying time. This will eliminate the strike price problem and the expiration date problem and bring you back much closer to the stock itself. Tom