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Technology Stocks : WDC, NAND, NVM, enterprise storage systems, etc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam who wrote (4325)	1/30/2020 10:07:13 AM
From: Unwelcomeguest	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4827

Yesterday, I 'de-risked' my WDC holdings substantially. I had lots of my portfolio invested in options that had been extremely good to me with huge gains. Now, options make up only about 15% of my holdings and I bought long shares in WDC. My concern is the current PPS is heavily based on increasing NAND pricing and higher demand. I believe WDC will benefit from both, but the Coronavirus has thrown a huge question mark over everything. We have analysts saying the limitation on supply from the Chinese chipmakers in Wuhan will help WDC and MU. Others say the opposite will happen. I don't expect WDC to say what will happen either, but rather give a 'we will just have to wait and see' approach. This will essentially take away any confirmation of a rosy forecast to justify the higher valuations needed to support the current PPS. I believe the Coronavirus is going to be an unknown quantity with unknown effect for several months to come. Since it has an asymptomatic 2-week long incubation period, it will take months, not weeks, to get any sort of clear indication of the impact. This characteristic will also make it particularly difficult to get under control. As a result, I reduced my June/July call options due to concern the virus overhang may still be with us affecting WDC & MU pricing. The closer we get to expiry, the less volatility premium the option prices include. Hence, I switched to holding shares long so I could wait out the 'virus effect'. Who else is going to hold through the ER tonight? JMHO