Do you believe everything they said? I do not!
How much of that $35M is *stacking* and *inventory*?
<The feedback has been outstanding. What we hear the most is that physicians are incredibly impressed with Beovu’s drying properties and with the efficacy.>
To observed efficacy subject NEED 3 monthly injections, THREE, so how come that only after 2 months they are talking about EXCELLENT FEEDBACK from MDs???? Must be SO GOOD that they see efficacy after single injection? WHAT type of REFRACTORY AMD-subjects are they? Or MDs choice was *regular* one (mild AMD), and instead LUCENTIS lets try Beovu!
So, on average it was 1.5 of injections/subjects for 4Q (1.5 months of launch) and with $1.9K/inj. (in line with Eylea) its looks like there were 12280 pts???? Yes, 12280 subjects that they injected (not counting inventory). And all that in 2-3 weeks, there was Christmas/New Year and other Holidays...bad time to commence launch! WOW, what a launch! With this trajectory.. (16K subjects/month counting progressive requirement) they will have 200K subjects by Year End. About 1/2 that REGN have in 2018, and maybe 2019 as well! And that is only for AMD! What about DME! God help as! Dam it, REGN is going to BANKRUPT! They should invoke article 11 right away!
Nonetheless, I would like to see 4Q-19 Medicare data (part B), *ako laze koza ne lazu rozi*? There should be very clear how many subjects were treated!
For comparison let me calculated subject treated by Eylea in US, for 4Q-2019. From CMS, part B, in whole 2018 Eylea had 240K subjects from Medicare ($2.5B in revenue), and about 140K subject outside Medicare ($1.5B in revenue). So total, 380K subjects.
4Q 2019:
$1.22B, 2 injection per Q, $1.9K/injection....320K subjects!
$1.22B, 1.5 injection per Q, $1.9K/injection.....428K subjects
That ~420K subjects are most likely true number for 2019, so we have about 1.5 injection per Q! and patients and MDs are very happy about. Obviously some subjects are on 1inj/Q and some more often, Q4W or Q8W! So, why would MDs change practice with something that is more or less equal, that can not be used in Q4W regime, but with ADDED RISK! Bits me? How about You? Is that really what is going on?
REGN is not forthcoming when Eylea projection and market performance forecasting is what it takes. BAD ON THEIR PART, and I am piss off! WE, SH, needs some clarity.
Yes, Novartis did a good job supplying Beuvo to specialists, FREE SAMPLE, to tray? They did not spare $$$$$ for launch, I give them a credit. From CC:
Analyst, Seamus Fernandez, asked about reimbursement issue.
Q: <What we are hearing from some physicians though is there are some questions being raised about the reimbursement dynamics in the market and whether or not PRN utilization is something where they’re struggling to get reimbursed if a patient is not getting the kind of benefits that they hoped early on.>
A:<We’re also supporting physicians and providers and payers with a number of different initiatives. So that this will flow quite easily.
You have to remember, we’ve had the permanent J-Code since the 1st of January, but so far the benefits investigation and the re-verifications have gone extremely well. What we’re really excited about though is the feedback. So we get outstanding feedback from physicians regarding the efficacy and regarding the drying properties of Beovu.
Sure they do, how else MDs will stack Beovu in fridge (and there is still manufacturing issue, 120mg/mL conc, and batch to batch quality)...so Swiss and Australia have batches quality monitoring requirement. Why would Swiss Fucxx Novartis, and do that?????
In all, I am surprise by the $35M number. With stacking and inventory...I was thinking about $15-20M, maybe 1-1.5K subjects, all on the Lucentis expense. I guess, my expectations were wrong. Or, maybe not? Will see in 9 months, when 2019 CMS medicare Part B data are out.
For comparison let me calculated subject treated by Eylea in US, for 4Q-2019. From CMS, part B, in whole 2018 Eylea had 240K subjects from Medicare ($2.5B in revenue), and about 140K subject outside Medicare ($1.5B in revenue). So total, 380K subjects.
4Q:
$1.22B, 2 injection per Q, $1.9K/injection....320K subjects!
$1.22B, 1.5 injection per Q, $1.9K/injection.....428K subjects
That 420K subjects are most likely true number for 2019, so we have about 1.5 injection per Q! and patients and MDs are very happy about. Obviously some subjects are with 1inj/Q and some more often, Q4W or Q8W! So, why would they change practice with something that is more or less equal, but with ADDED SAFETY RISK! Bits me? How about You? Is that really what is going on?
REGN is not forthcoming when Eylea projection and market performance forecasting is what it takes. BAD ON THEIR PART, and I am piss off! We, SHs, needs some clarity.
Before posting this reply, I will include (tonight, next post)) Lucentis-US data from Roche and see was there any significant decline.
PS: Lucentis 4Q US sale were .... |
