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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: McNabb Brothers who wrote (1459)	1/25/1998 12:24:00 AM
From: taxikid	Respond to of 18691

i am not really against roger.. we have been following the stock forever{it seems} bottom line is that it was getting ahead of itself.. and one must wonder how it could get so far ahead of itself.. it isn't a story stock.. and while i won't short here.. {the fundamentals fill the gaps} the stock should converge eventually.. who knows.. i have played ctxs before.. both ways.. and options.. but the real issue isn't there something better to "gamble" with? taxi

To: McNabb Brothers who wrote (1459)	1/25/1998 12:43:00 AM
From: Roger A. Babb	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

Hank, here are my counters to Tom's points, but just for your benefit. I don't want to get in a debate with the CTXS long's. 1. The big quarterly growth is compared to the same quarter a year ago. The sequential quarterly growth without the MSFT payments and interest on cash is not so impressive. And I think the current quarter may actually show lower revenue. 2. True 3. True, but the MSFT payments that are being counted as revenue are already counted in cash. Very misleading double counting. 4. I don't know about this claim, but obviously they have made many sales. 5. I doubt that will sales of NT 3.51 product will continue. I have heard of some cases of Winframe being removed from service in favor of NT 4.0 and central software management systems. 6. True, but is there life after the MSFT payments? Its not all gravy, CTXS has to work for it and will have expenses. 7 & 8. Time will tell......... The new MSFT product does not require ICA for Windows 95 or CE clients. It is not clear that Picasso will be necessary for most installations of the MSFT product. It is also likely that other remote control vendors will hook up to the MSFT product creating competition for CTXS.

To: McNabb Brothers who wrote (1459)	1/25/1998 4:34:00 AM
From: Dan Ross	Respond to of 18691

One more point to add to Roger's.... I am not sure how familiar you are with DCF (Discounted cash flow) valuation methods..... It has been proven, time and time again, that with GROWTH stocks the value is in the residual value.....What the hell does that mean? It means that the majority of the price is based on years 6- infiniti....Basically people believe that growth will continue for many years..... I have done DCFs on many growth stocks....with CTXS' growth rate and P/E assigned to it I would estimate that the price has more than taken into consideration yrs 6+.....just a guesstimate based on experience with other companies growing at fast rates also.... Dan Ross