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Strategies & Market Trends : Dino's Bar & Grill -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Goose94 who wrote (76278)	1/31/2020 7:05:27 PM
From: Goose94	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 202704

HUV-T: Developing Trouble in S&Ps; Take Cover In Mon’s Technical Blog we discussed two admittedly small scale displays of weakness with last Thur’s micro mo failure below 21-Jan’s 3307 corrective low followed by last Fri’s relapse below Thur’s 3301 initial counter-trend low. The subsequent fallout was to Mon’s 3233 low detailed in the 240-min chart below. This short-term term weakness has defined 22-Jan’s 3338 high as one of developing importance and our short-term risk parameter the market remains required to recoup to confirm the recent sell-off attempt another 3-wave and thus corrective affair consistent with the secular bull trend. Since Mon however, this chart also shows a near-61.8% retrace of the preceding 3338 – 3233 decline and overnight’s relatively extensive relapse. Further weakness below Mon’s 3233 initial counter-trend low will reinforce at least the intermediate-term trend as down and expose a larger-degree correction. Per such, we advise even long-term players to trail protective sell-stops to levels just below this 3233 level that we’re now considering our new long-term risk parameter. Continued sharp, solid gains across the interest rate sector (we’ll be updating next) and continued meltdowns in copper and the energy sector would seem to reinforce a broader peak/correction count in equities. While it would take weakness below at least key former resistance-turned-support from Jul’19’s ?3025-area? to threaten the secular bull market following 4Q19’s impressive, impulsive resumption of this massive bull, it’s not hard to see the prospect that the rally from 03Oct19’s 2855 low may be a complete 5-wave Elliott sequence as labeled in the daily chart above. Admittedly, Mon’s ?3233? low is a very tight risk parameter from this longer-term perspective, but under the collapsing interest rate, energy and copper circumstances, even longer-term traders are advised to err on the side of a more conservative approach to risk assumption. If this count is wrong, the cost or risk is that of smaller-degree whipsaw risk above 22-Jan’s ?3338? high or even yesterday’s ?3293? high. If no defensive measures ?are taken on a sub-3233 failure, the downside risk thereafter is indeterminable and, to us, unacceptable. Better being out, wishing you were in, then in, wishing you were out. These issues considered, a neutral-to-cautiously-bearish policy is advised for shorter-term traders with a recovery above at least ?3293? (micro risk) and/or ?3338? required to threaten or negate this call and warrant its cover. A bullish policy remains OK for long-term players with a failure below ?3233? required to ???defer or threaten our long-term bullish count enough to warrant neutralizing all bullish exposure and circumventing the depths unknown of a larger-degree correction lower. This bullish policy can always be reset following a relapse-stemming bullish divergence in momentum and/or a recovery above 3293 and, as a last resort, 3338.? rjofutures.rjobrien.com