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Technology Stocks : Applied Magnetics Corp -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jonathan Bird who wrote (11326)	1/25/1998 10:52:00 AM
From: T Bowl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12298

JonBird - <<What do you see that I don't?>> I have noticed that several places have stopped listing the WDC AC11200...It simply wasn't keeping up with the recent price cuts. We(APM shorts) can only hope that the AC22500 will soon follow although it looks like it is in better shape from a price cometition basis. And unfortunately the AC34000 looks like it is still pretty competitive as well. The WDC CC next week will be very interesting to hear what they say about the 1.3 family todd

To: Jonathan Bird who wrote (11326)	1/25/1998 10:57:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 12298

Hi Jon; Well I haven't really looked all that much, and mostly do baskets now any way. Still window shop, I use to track and play some stocks that had short interest. Thing is thoes plays take time to work out. I go out on boats, for up to 6 weeks at a time, 3 times I've gone out and things change and I miss getting a profit, or get a small one , or one of my holdings gets clobbered. Last time I went out I had 2 winners, that sold on GTC orders , but had I been in I would have uped the target price a lot, I had one that lost a lot more than the winners brought me, some one told me to use stop losses, but I don't like them, so from now on if I can't watch a stock, I'm into baskets, or out of the market and in MM if I ship out. So I guess all this APM stuff is just acidemic to me. Maybe I'l use what I learn after I quit the boats all together. My quick takes on it with that short interest is also tied to her low price/ cash on hand/ and ability to weather the storm. Bad news for 6mo is good if you think she should be lower than she is, that in itself says she has some strenth. As for buyers/sellers or spining one over the other, I use volume and a debate on with way to spin it can go on forever, if your not looking at the bid/ask size there is no way to know for sure, but there are some general ways you can get a good guess of the supply/demand via the volume, and short interest. If you facter in that a lot of the buyers are not really buying, but just covering shorts. The rule of thumb goes sell on the high end on a small spike with larger than normal volume, "that don't hold close to it's top", buy on the low end on a small dip with low volume that don't hold it's low. I have not charted her say on a interday day chart with like 30 min breaks over a 5 day period, or even a 60 day chart. But I might get around to that, and watch her more. Still it would take a strong case for me to get involved with money knowing I'm going out and would have to leave it on the table in this market. I did good with calls last year, but it was a bull market, heck we are in a bear market ( have been since Sept. ) had I been in I would have seen that OCT sell off coming, But my kind of market timing is rather short term and don't see way ahead..we look to be ready for another down week coming up. Not good to buy many calls yet, this thingy will likely also depend on WDC, SEG, QTNM to start moving up, the whole HD sector is smashed right now except for the main frame tape dillies, Sector has taken bigger hits than the Korean market..but it will bounce back, if it don't all computer related stocks are going to go down the tubes. I like what I saw of APMs cash take that off her price and you'l see how cheap she really is. Looks like to me managment saw this down turn coming and got ready for it as best they could. Man I went through all these arguments back in 96, when AMD was clobbered down to 10.25, and the shorts were still licking their chops. I started at 14.50 and doubled down 3 times with her, to wind up with a 12.50 avg, my borker said I was nuts, ( but whe she went up he bought in at 22 ) I later dumped out at 29 ( way to soon ) but I'm not keen on falling knives, in a falling market..I love them when the market or sector is running up, or at least starts to. The bigger HD players will tip you off as to that. Jim