Hi elmat! Coronavirus Update:
Finally out from under work deluge,,,very busy last few weeks finishing up customer projects in USA before hopping on plane,,, now just getting back to planned re-entry into market and enjoying smiles in thailand.
Vaccine trials starting in USA: efficacy-be-damned a shot will be in order,,, as even 50-60% reduction is a substantial savings over large scale drowning. Estimate at least 4-6 months,,, unless china wins race by on-the-fly human trial, polio, etc style haste.
Antivirals-- as expected showing efficacy. GILD best choice here,,,, given current death rate,,, will be nibbling here when bottom is in. GILD purchase of Pharmasset looking super smart here,,now owns monopoly on discovery library gold mine.
Multi-Multi-Ton-Scale manufacture of somethingvir,,, not yet even ready,,, as even simple paper can't be kept on shelves per,,, amazon,, even at american price vs. chinese price. lead time for such 3 months for big dent,,,6+ months for all, no matter can build hospital in 6 days or 6 hours. Simply not simple,,, as supply chain has mortal sucking chest wound,,, and india is only alternative. pretty much guarantees modi a seat at the main table for now and forever. See below,,, as siblings,,, india-pakistan,,, iran-iraq,, north korea-china-south-korea,,, all now dressed as twinsies,,, and ready for long car ride on a hot day.
Disconcerting information world-wide
0.) Thailand,,, masks not really everywhere, thai's making memes on social media, having chuckle at world expense regarding thai superstition vs. western superstition and fondness for cruise ships. for the most part feel safe here,,, entry into thailand through NRT,,, was business as usual.
1.)USA: Virus patient in Northern California on the loose, with no-known source. very very troubling. This is likely sole reason for CDC dire warnings. Overall, damage to US and modern
I-I-I
2.) Italy. Tend to think initial result very very bad,,, but final outcome at least can be trusted.
3.) India. Discussing with Indian professor yesterday, both of us lamenting minimal news of outbreak ahead of orangemanbad arrival. Main economic drivers of travel direction for chinese,,,, not going over mountain range, so less concern for rural spread. surprised haven't seen more cases in metro hyderabad, mumbai, etc. at this point, very very suspect,,, unless genes conferring desire for lamb korma, also confer resistance to viral cell entry.
4.) Iran. American non-intelligence intelligence must be kicking self, as willingness of Iranians to serve as incubator was underestimated,,,, when trust but verify was so close,,, and now,, so far away. This can be only not good,,, Options are now,,, totalitarian crackdown e.g. stay at home,,, do-not-go-out-or-be-shot, or do-not-go-out-and-self-drowning.. This is bad, and will only get much much worse. There is no political way to paint this,,, it could quite easily be catalyst for major middle east conflict,,, as on-the-street iranian access to pitchforks, and mischief is just a matter of focus, not physical barrier, and border/powder keg Iraq,,,not helping.
5.) North Korea/South Korea/China Border--- long range concern,,, combo of 2.3.4.
6.) Japan case of re-infection,,, too early to tell,,, recovered may not have been recovered, or,,, as HSV, HIV recovered is never-quite-gone... This is something to monitor, because if latter case,,, then dawn tinfoil hat, crawl under chair, and wait for TEOTWAKI,,,, Even out of 80K cases, and 3300 recovered,,, is not enough to predict yet,,, and if recovered is never-quite-gone, human new normal will be very-very different.
As TJ says,,,but have not yet checked up,,, suspect as always,,, he has followed script,,, buy gold, for it is cheap,,, pd, and pt about to get cheaper,,, oil, even more so,,,and heading for even more-more-so.
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