Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Point and Figure Charting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AdvocatusDiaboli who wrote (32791)	2/3/2020 9:24:48 PM
From: Underexposed	1 Recommendation Recommended By Don Green Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34811

Hi AD My one and only confrontation at a border was in 1971 after graduation from University. Back then the thing to do was to go on a trip through Europe on the cheap. I lived on $5/day and that included accommodation & meals in hostels and cheap hotels. I had a student Rail Pass that cost $120/ 2 months free travel by rail. I would often simply get on a train at night and when I woke up in the morning simply get on another train to get to where I wanted to go...... such a life!!!! We were warned about a cholera epidemic in Spain and the necessity of getting a cholera shot before going there. I got one in Paris about 3 weeks before getting to the border with Spain. We changed trains at the border as the rails in Spain are narrower than in the rest of Europe. The Spanish health authorities went through every passengers health cards with a fine tooth comb and it took 4 hours before we could move on. A lot of people are pretty negative about China and how they are handling the coronavirus situation. They point to the fewer cases and only one death in the rest of the world...but that is unfair IMHO. I think that this is because Health officials of the various countries are actively checking out each and every person potentially carrying the disease and 99% those are people confirmed outside of China have come from an infected area of China. Those confirmed outside have not (so far) established the disease and get treated right away and recover. China on the other hand had a couple of problems. First they probably did not recognize the disease for what it was in the early stages. It has flu like qualities so to them {shrug} it was the flu. Second they were approaching Chinese New Year. This is a time of mass migration back to their home cities/towns/villages. I have been there during such an event about a decade ago and it was amazing....it was hard to get a train, plane or bus seat at the height of it. So in the beginning carriers were spreading out all over that country. We in North America so far do not have either problem . The carriers are (so far) identified and treated quickly and though some are in critical condition they are not roaming around. we have had the luxury of a heads up on the problem that China never had....but if one person leaks through that vigilance then we could have a similar problem as China. Anyway I observe the rate of virus case increase has slowed to 15% per day in China and almost holding steady outside China. Looks like it is probably under control and unlikely to become a pandemic. I am not so sure of that here are the charts of total cases and deaths It still looks exponential growth to me. I added the dotted red lines and each section is fewer days than the last to reach the next major grid line. China has locked down another city other than Wuhan..... that sounds like a progression of the disease.... not a slowing. Many major companies are shutting down operations for 2 weeks in China....we shall see if those closures are lifted. China is taking body blows in its economy... that will be felt in other countries as well soon. That should ease fears on global markets and bring buyers back. A Coronavirus crash is off the table methinks. I hope you're right but I'm not convinced. I laugh at people who tout the occurrence of a tiny up-tick in the $SPX as a sign the problems are over...so naive..... That is NOT a bullish chart. UE