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To: Rob Preuss who wrote (420)	1/25/1998 1:51:00 PM
From: rich evans	Respond to of 1250

Good discussion. I think the industry sector and market valuations (PE) also affect not just assumed growth rates. As to growth rates,the ecm stocks and especially the smaller ones can have recurrent suprises as they are not big enough not to be affected by all the changes. Right now most of the ECMs are in the 12 forward PE range. The board makers like hdco are at 10 with a growth rate of 20+. I think though that ACTM will recover and in my previous posts have estimated on the high end of your earnings at 1.50 based on filling capacity and returning to the old margins.Of course I hope you are right but personally I have reduced my PE expectations for the whole sector. Rich

To: Rob Preuss who wrote (420)	1/25/1998 4:27:00 PM
From: jeffbas	Respond to of 1250

Go back and look at when they announced the third quarter "accident". The comparable date with respect to the fourth quarter has long since passed. I stick to what I said, which is why I find your notes reassuring. The final numbers are unlikely to be more than a penny off one way or the other from what he knew when you talked with him. How would you figure the fact that they have shown no growth in sales for at least a year into your growth rate assumption? I think that both Paul K and 18lecastra on the ECM thread have expressed skepticism about the business model of these regional players. Until proven wrong, I believe that assuming 5% less than industry growth rate is prudent.

To: Rob Preuss who wrote (420)	1/26/1998 12:38:00 AM
From: Larry Unger	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1250

<<they had a surprise bad quarter (which coincided with all the global market problems) >> They lost 3COM as a customer (their biggest) -- that shook the confidence of every ACTM investor (as it should). What are they going to replace this loss with? The global BS had very little to do with their "drop". They are going to have to show growth without 3COM and also clearly state how they will continue that growth here in the States.