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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: THE ANT who wrote (153209)	2/13/2020 1:01:06 AM
From: TobagoJack	1 Recommendation Recommended By 3bar Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 217705

Update On 13 Feb 2020, at 2:26 PM, D wrote: both the analytical note and the database have been updated for information that became available late but is relevant to developments in the 24hrs to 1100 hrs HKT. Update. Coronavirus (N) (COVID-19) update at 1100hrs HKT on Thursday, Feb 13, 2020 Key Take: Hubei reported this morning an additional 14,840 cases and 242 deaths which had not been include in the reported data. Hubei had previously not been including “clinically diagnosed cases” in confirmed cases until they had been tested using diagnostic kits. Hubei says it did not have enough kits. Of the 14840 additional cases declared by Hubei, 13332 are due to the new classification and 1508 are New Confirmed Cases overnight. Of the 242 deaths reported by Hubei overnight 135 were of clinically diagnosed cases not previously included in Confirmed Cases. This is a severe blow to the credibility of China in reporting COVID-19 accurately…. and by extension to other developing countries where reporting is already questionable. This was not about a lack of diagnostic kits. It was a full blown cover-up by the Hubei Communist Party authorities. The reason it is coming out now is because two days ago both the Communist Party Secretary (Zhang Jin) and the Director (Liu Yingzi) of Hubei’s Health Commission were fired. Both of these posts have been filled by Wang Hesheng, the deputy head of the National Health Commission. Wang has also been appointed to Hubei’s CP Standing Committee. Clearly he is making a clean sweep of things. This morning Jiang Chaoliang, the Party chief in Hubei has been replaced by the Deputy Party chief in Shanghai, Ying Yong. And the Communist Party leader of Wuhan City, Ma Guoqiang was replaced by Wang Zhonglin, the Party Secretary of Shandong’s capital Jinan In the longer term this actually indicates that Xi is determined to get on top of this epidemic. But in the short term it creates uncertainty about how successfully this is being achieved. The investment implications are that the disease is more widespread and the contagion rate has risen to an RON (number of well people infected by each Coronavirus carrier) of 3-4. This will slow down the reboot of the Chinese economy and of global supply chains. It makes any of our usual day to day analysis of statistics for China Mainland meaningless for the moment as past data on infections and deaths is understated and today’s overstated. All we can say is that rough calculations for the last 24 hrs show that New Confirmed Cases in China Mainland using the “new” definition consistently for both days rose by 1801 versus 2015 the previous day. On the same consistent basis there would have been 1508 new cases in Hubei compared to 1638 the previous day. There were between 300-400 new confirmed cases outside Hubei similar to the previous day. Unreliable though the data and estimates are now, this would still point to a decline in the rate of New Confirmed Cases but from a higher base. We get these figures by adjusting New Declared Cases overnight to exclude the 13332 “clinically diagnosed cases” that were already in existence and including the 1508 new overnight “clinically diagnosed cases”. Unfortunately, we cannot be sure that inaccurate reporting is not present elsewhere. Other Analysis 1. There were 49 new confirmed cases outside China Mainland down from 55 the previous day. Japan reported an increase in total confirmed cases from 203 to 247 related to the cruise ship in Yokohama. Total confirmed cases outside China Mainland are now 567. No new countries reported confirmed cases. 2. Globally fatalities have now reached 1368 (including those previously under-reported by China). The fatality rate is 2.3% 3. The number of people who have recovered globally is 6032 today compared to 4711 yesterday, 10% of declared cases. Of the number of people currently being treated for Coronavirus (52962) 84.5% are in a mild condition and 15.6% are in a severe condition.