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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Teri Skogerboe who wrote (15034)	1/26/1998 10:58:00 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

Re:. Right this second I don't see compelling evidence for much price appreciation in '98 at all. One thing, the Koreans were over-investing and weren't basing their decisions on profitability. If I'm Taiwan, I would proceed very cautiously about further spending in this area. Taiwan can glance over and look at Korea and there are many people in major pain because of this fiasco. Teri, I think it is a mistake to even attempt to forecast what will happen in the big macro-economic picture of the next 2 years for these economies. With or without Korea, the need for IC's will grow, and this latest overcapacity problem could come into equilibrium sooner than expected because of the cutbacks in Korean spending. If this is indeed the case, '99 will see much more capex than currently forecasted and this will be reflected into the price of the stocks sometime in the 2nd half of this year. History has shown, without exception, that technology stocks and the cycles they ride will come back in not too long a timespan. I think it is a mistake on many people's part to anguish over a bottom on these stocks. Buy where you feel comfortable and stick it out. My own view is quite contrary to yours in that I see dramatic price appreciation in AMAT in which $70 by years end is not implausible. Heed Gene's words ""Why should we all be right this time, we didn't call the fall '96 turn, or the October '97 top." I am not telling anyone to go out and buy AMAT. I am saying that IMHO, the upside potential far exceeds the downside risk and that any purchase made here will probably not be regretted 6 months from now. Regards, Brian