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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tulvio Durand who wrote (9641)	1/26/1998 1:12:00 AM
From: The Jedi	Respond to of 95453

Your decidedly negative prognosis for the oil drillers may have basis on some people's TA but not on the fundamentals you describe First it is not my prognosis, it is a fact from data available. We have been going down since 10/15/97 (just check any chart). Second, I never claimed that the fundamentals were bad. I believe they are very good, but just not reflected in the way the stock price are moving right now. 1) While three oil drillers did not meet earnings expectations, they did not miss by much (like SLB missed by only one cent), and you are ignoring the fact that a larger number of oil drillers have exceeded earnings expectations. Where did I ignore the fact that most drillers have exceeded expectations. Show me that statement. I did not make any statement (and I did not want to repeat what everybody else has been posting). I just pointed out the fact that most people were ignoring the 3 disappointments. On this thread and in most poeples mind there was no chance of missing a quarter, and the unthinkable has happened, and they claim Asia may have an effect. (2) You equate oil price with oil-drillers' valuations. Yet we're told by drillers, Barrons, et al that oil price is irrelevant to the oil drillers' business unless it remains outside the range of $15-to-$30 for a protracted period of six months or longer, and none are expecting that to happen. (3) A US-led military response to Saddam seems probable. IRAQ's oil flow may be curtailed in the process, and spot oil price may well soar beyond the real influence of IRAQ's oil in the world market. Again spot oil price is not really relevant (for the reason stated in (2) above) except for a temporary market reaction. My guess is that the market will go down initially, and it will be soon led back up by energy issues including oil drillers. Let me clarify I do not equate spot oil with driller valuations. I never trade based on valuations. I just took what was reported by FWN from the pits. I have posted the original FWN news, please read it again. I do not claim to be a trader based on fundamentals, so if still you feel I made a misstatement, just excuse me. Kiri