To: Andrew Vance who wrote (10908 ) 1/26/1998 8:44:00 AM From: SE Respond to of 17305
AV, Congratulations! What a game. Finally a super bowl that was a game. As much as I disliked the outcome, the better team won today. Pack's defense played flat the whole game. More particularly, the defensive line. Maybe those guys are just getting old or are too darn big (fat). It was a spectacular game. If we can keep our team intact (11 starters are free agents), we will be back. Well, I owe you one. This is not spectacular in the terms that the companies you like have up and coming products and ides, but it is a solid growth company that has performed well and is poised to make a decent stock move once again. Anyway, I promised a pick and here it goes: Thermo Electron: This company has a unique structure..unique not in that it is the only one to use such a structure, but unique in its reasoning for using and its continual use of the structure. The company finds good ideas and then spins the idea off with top management to run the new company which allows the new company lots of room to explore its ideas and go in directions that may not be possible if the idea was held in a large corporate structure. There home page is at:thermo.com I suggest some reading from the home page. It explains the idea more fully than I ever could. Revenues and net income is as follows: Sept 1997, 909,850, .38 June 1997, 875,816, .35 March 1997, 763,505, .32 Annual 2,932,558,000, 1.35 Dec 1996, 794,433, .36 Sept 1996, 739,981, .32 June 1996, 745,759, .32 March 1996, 652,385, .31 Annual, 2,270,291,000, 1.10 Estimates for this year are $1.50 per share and next year $1.81. This company is growing earnings at an average annual rate of 18% and trades at a PE of 26 based on $1.5 this year and 22 based on next year. This is a very solid growth company. A five year chart:tscn.com I think the chart is positive, but would like some help from the TA gurus on this one. It appears the stock stalled two years ago and has been consolidating ever since. The uptrend channel was broken and a downtrend was in place for over a year. Early in 1997 the downtrend channel reversed and the stock appears to be in an uptrend once again. It has tested its highs of 1996 at 44 recently and appears poised to break those highs shortly. IMO an entry now will have limited downside risk, but a stop at 36 would be in order. A safer entry would be once it breaks the 44 level. If that occurs set a stop at 42 or so, below the previous high and break-out level of 44. Look for the break on good volume. Last time it tested 44 volume was average and the bet would have been for it not to break 44, and it did not. All in all, I think this company on a long term basis is a winner. A break above 44 may give it nice legs on a shorter term basis. Any thoughts? -Scott