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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sense who wrote (154077)	3/9/2020 5:44:12 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217758

Re <<gold>> Yes, of course, naturally, absolutely, too much physical as well as enough paper, and a modicum of miners (DRD, SBSW, and RGLD). Had thankfully off-loaded complicated holdings before get-go or at get-go of first inkling of panic a few (2? 3 or 4?) weeks ago a matter of thread record but seems a long time ago even as the year is very young. The news flow is certainly fast n furious. Must keep up for this time might be one of those times when tactics as important as strategy. Dunno. Anyone claiming to know may end up dead. I had bought and quickly sold ETHE after a ~20% over something like 72 hours. Glad I was not greedy and did. Let us watch live whether crypto as good or better than gold. Things really are getting al phucked up. Given the thread topic, 2026 something and 2032 something else, this is what we have been talking about, and now, in all splendour, a dress rehearsal. Coincidentally here below Bloomberg highlights gold vs crypto, two goes into the cage and let’s see whether and how many emerge. bloomberg.com Gold, Bitcoin No Longer Frenemies in Coronavirus EraThe two assets used to run in lockstep during difficult times. But not after Covid-19 started to spread. Tim CulpanMarch 9, 2020, 7:32 AM GMT+2 The coronavirus drives old frenemies apart. Photographer: Ulrich Baumgarten/Getty There was a time when Bitcoin earned its stripes as a safe asset in times of crisis or uncertainty. Now, it seems that a global disease outbreak has proven too much for the premier cryptocurrency, with prices plunging over the past month. Bloomberg Opinion first stumbled across the notion that Bitcoin was a sanctuary four years ago during Brexit fever, when it moved almost in lockstep with gold. We noted at the time that it would take a few more bouts of global fear to confirm that the cryptocurrency could be considered a good hedging option. One such occasion occurred last year, when the gold-Bitcoin two-step started up again in connection with a drop in the yuan and heightened risk over U.S.-China trade. The correlation between Bitcoin and gold over the prior year was 0.496, and had shot up to 0.827, which is about as high as you could expect. A correlation coefficient of 1 indicates that assets move in perfect lockstep. Over the past two years this asset pair has charted a correlation of 0.616. 1 Then the Covid-19 virus struck. For a brief moment, it looked like Bitcoin was again a winner, climbing 43% from the start of the year to as high as $10,471 on Feb. 13. That was in line with, albeit much sharper than, a rise in traditional havens gold and 10-year U.S. Treasuries. Out of SyncBitcoin and gold have moved in opposite directions as the Covid-19 outbreak worsened Source: Bloomberg Note: Base 100 on Feb. 9 Then it plunged. By 10 a.m. Monday in Taipei, where I am based, Bitcoin was down 23% from that high, including a 12% drop in the past day. But even without the most recent plunge, the cryptocurrency had fallen out of favor. It bobbed around $10,000 for a week or so, even as Treasuries kept climbing, and then fell under $9,500 and stayed there. Right now, it’s hovering around $8,000. Gold faced a similar sell-off, but that weakness lasted only two days before it shot up again. The precious metal is now trading at the highest level in more than seven years. As a result, the correlation between gold and Bitcoin has flipped to -0.22 over the past month. This tells me that at least a subset of investors — those that trade cryptocurrencies — are feeling far more jittery than they did in the past. Maybe it’s because previous shocks seemed so esoteric — after all, Britain exiting the European Union and a superpower trade war were events of little direct or daily impact. This time, though, the spread of Covid-19 has people quarantined in their homes and panic-purchasing basic necessities. That’s made the current crisis more real, more threatening, and more scary, sending investors chasing after an asset that’s more tangible than 256-bits of code and belief in a utopian digital future. 2 I wouldn’t be so bold as to suggest that Bitcoin won’t rise again. But just one month of data is warning enough that maybe investors can’t rely on it to always be their haven in desperate times. Based on weekly data to filter out noise. A bitcoin private key, the "password" which allows an owner to transfer the asset, is 256 bits in length. This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg LP and its owners. To contact the author of this story: Tim Culpan at tculpan1@bloomberg.net To contact the editor responsible for this story: Patrick McDowell at pmcdowell10@bloomberg.net