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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (154140)	3/10/2020 9:26:45 AM
From: sense	1 Recommendation Recommended By ggersh Respond to of 217752

A big day yesterday... so its human nature to rebound from the stress and think that the market reaction yesterday, somehow, in itself... solved a problem. It didn't. It was just a recognition event... a proof of the new awareness that there is a problem... as it became actionable. The event, yesterday occurred as people BEGAN to adjust their choices, in light of the new awareness, by altering their behavior. The problem in the market today... is everyone wants to keep working hard at failing to recognize what yesterday represented. Is it the difference between "a bubble popping" or "one bad day in the market" and "business as usual" in the relation between monetary policy and markets... or other government hand-holding ? Or is it about people recognizing, instead... that there is a REAL PROBLEM... which imposes the reality that you can't print your way out of the impacts Coronavirus WILL HAVE. And, from here, that issue is one that ONLY INCREASES in its impacts... over the next 30 days, over the next 60 days. Looking at the soothing words about monetary or fiscal "fixes"... is totally missing the point. Whether its a "pause" or an entry into a long running bear (which is what bonds are saying)... that isn't going to be decided by monetary policy or political gimicks and grandstanding ? Today, you're seeing "whew, that was ugly, glad that's over". And, sorry, no... it's still just beginning. Yesterday was a recognition event... and today everyone wants to pretend ... it was the reaction that is what mattered... not the reason for it... as if nothing new was being recognized ? What is driving events now... is the virus... and the rest of the silliness is a distraction convincing you other things are in control of the market... when they're not. The market had a one day temper tantrum ? OK. So, tell me... what's the right price for X stock... when 30 days from now everything in the entire economy begins to grind to an absolute halt... and both coasts are in "lock downs" like ALL of Italy is today ? How does a change in withholding matter... when you aren't working... and don't know when you will be again ? When business is at a standstill... are they going to suspend the accruals for debt payments coming due, when no one is making money to pay the bills ? High yield bonds are toast in the coming environment... the debt bubble greatly amplifies our risks... and that's why Russia and Saudi Arabia chose now as the right time to launch an attack on American oil producers by cutting oil prices in half ? The price drop... sets clocks ticking on high yield time bombs... which will take how long to go off ? And, how far along will the virus issues be at that time ? These aren't random events. The "feel good" aspect in the market today... feeling reassured because Trump said OK to "tax relief" ? LOL!! That just doesn't matter. It modifies the market mood... for today ? Fine. It modifies nothing of the reality of the impacts that are coming. Those impacts weren't NECESSARY... wouldn't be happening IF we had done what was required to stop this thing... but we pissed away the opportunity... and in result its now hardwired that its going to happen. And it's predictable as all get out...