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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RetiredNow who wrote (154265)	3/12/2020 7:54:14 PM
From: sense	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217789

There is some minor variation between the funds supposedly representing the same thing... making it worth shopping for those that better reflect the premise. Today, compare charts for OILD and DWT and they look about the same... reflecting the price of oil. Both are up today, but both below the highs set on Monday. The chart for DRIP though set new highs today... because the stocks appear they are delayed in reflecting the impact of the oil price changes... and they're probably reflecting it with additional leverage that is inherent in the shares... but also reflecting something more in the emotion of "a bad day in the stock market" versus "a commodity price changed again" ? Stocks seem to take more time to digest and process the change... generating a lag... and then do so more emotionally than the commodity itself. But I'm also looking at the bigger issue... oil seems it clearly anticipated the moves in the market back in January... when most of the stock market focused issues were blindsided... delayed in their recognition... Call it the market equivalent of beer googles... ? Oil was reflecting real market prices... probably responding to the FACT of faltering demand in China from January on as the virus had impact there... while stocks here were still mostly reflecting a peak in greed... which meant ignoring even the obvious indications... like the obvious reality that real market impacts in China... shutting down the economy... would be reflected in markets here, too... while avoiding the virus here... probably was doable... but we didn't do it... and markets were slow to recognize and accept that fact, too. Tweaked to pay closer attention to the details... given the obvious that I'd missed... I used that same awareness of the "divergences" occurring yesterday... posted as A Warning... in calling the minor oddity of the gold market faltering relative to silver... as being clear evidence that there was an acceleration in calls on collateral... that repo wasn't getting close to meeting the need for liquidity...

To: RetiredNow who wrote (154265)	3/13/2020 12:46:13 AM
From: sense	1 Recommendation Recommended By Secret_Agent_Man Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217789

Gold Chart Analysis 1975 = 1996 then, 1 year vs. 5 years now (5X) August 1976 = April 2001 then, 4 years vs. 11 years now... events are still expanded in time and scale (2.75X) September 1980 = September 2012 then, 1.75 years vs. 3.1 years now (1.77X) June 1982 = November 2015 then, 2.6 years vs. 2.9 years now (1.11X) February 1985 = October 2018... only something's not quite right ? then, 34 months vs. 17 months now (-2X) Event expansion in time and scale becomes event compression, clearly a reversal in the accelerations in time... what about the scale ? December 1987 = March 2020 Now looking forward... we should expect to see an acceleration into a new low... comparable to Feb 2001 ? And then an eruption to new highs ? On what scale ? And the timing ? What does the acceleration of events mean ? In 1971 to 1980 it was a 20X move... with hard price controls apparently removed, but the prior control was only replaced by market manipulation. In 2001 to 2020 it was a 6.8X... with no change at all in the price control regime ? Are we due for another 20X like 1971 to 1980? Or are we due for a 20X + correction for the underage imposed n the last move higher ? The 20X would give us $30,000/ounce... while the full correction with controls removed would give $50,000 - $80,000/ounce... meaning the scale of the dislocation imposed over time is that between an ounce and a kilo of gold... that the LOW end of the proper measure of the wealth that's been extracted from the economy and transferred to... who ?... in the process of money manipulation...

To: RetiredNow who wrote (154265)	3/13/2020 5:54:03 AM
From: sense	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217789

Sort of the point of my bothering with poking at the ETF charts is trying to answer the question you asked. Having made the effort now, I don't think there's any problem with the "structure" of the ETFs. Instead, the differences I'm noting are the reflections in market data of "real" things in the market... it just requires a bit of analysis to sort out what those things are... and what they mean. Here's what I found that was immediately useful to me... First, I applied that focus in considering what I saw happening in the gold market. On Wednesday I posted... A Warning... about the shift I'd seen occur in the gold/silver ratio... so on Wednesday I was already expecting to see a larger 'Repocalyse" driven event occur in the market on Thursday. And that's what we got. I used that awareness to sell SQQQ near the peak on Thursday... expecting the unfolding of the Repo Risk Event (actually a locking up of liquidity leaving gold the most acceptable collateral for at risk counterparties) would drive a reaction... and that reaction would operate to counter the market effects seen today from the accelerating liquidation of gold being used as replacement collateral. That's in the news now... that there's going to be a big Repo Ramp planned for tomorrow... which probably will damp the downward flow in stocks on Friday. Got help us if it doesn't. And that Repo Response Event or Ramp might also alter the pressure that's been causing the accelerating gold liquidation that we saw the prior few days. That's my guess. It kills me to sell the SQQQ, because I don't think the decline is anywhere close to being over... and it means idling the cash until settlement, when I'd rather keep it at work... even if not at the cost of growing risk. But I tempered the analysis in deciding with the awareness that if they didn't do a Repo Ramp... the default risks would grow enough that I wouldn't want to be holding the risk in anything but cash anyway. The Repo Ramp will likely work to fend that still growing default risk off for a few more days... and I'll decide then whether to reapply the cash in an inverse ETF, hold it, or bottom fish for shares even while the lake is still being drained... knowing the fish will get continue getting more concentrated (and hungrier) for a while... If the market bounces well tomorrow ? I'll watch DPK... which has an amazing chart over the last few days. Today, I spent my time digging into the chart questions a bit more... with a comparison and closer analysis of the oil related charts versus the gold related charts. I'll post that soon... after thinking about it a bit more, and editing it a bit more...