RE <<Gold Falls 4% As Futures Sold Aggressively While Buying Of Coins And Bars Surges>>
let us count our blessings today so that we may count them again tomorrow.
(1) I reckon a few items.
Am good with what I did and all I did last night.
W/r to XOM and black gold Message 32603870 <<36.05 - 2.56 - 6.75 = 26.74 per share, based on current dividend payout (3.48) would be 13% per annum. A gift. Even if cut in half, still friendly.>>
W/r to yellow gold, SBSW (indirectly DRD finance.yahoo.com , except more liquid in dysfunctional market) and FNV
Message 32603821
I merely made promises to buy at below current market price, and got paid, potentially for nothing except insurance
For SBSW finance.yahoo.com now at 5.12, down from 11+, I made promise to buy at 5 on and before Oct 16th, and got paid 1.25 for the promise. Seems fair.
For FNV finance.yahoo.com now at 88, down from 120+, I made obligation w/ counterparty to buy his shares at 80 on or before same October 16th, and got paid 8.40. Seems adequate.
(1-a) We know there is no liquidity for when we got XOM we did not deserve, could not have counted on, and may still puke out, or be torn to shreds, and when I offered to short DRD puts at below the bid I still did not get filled. The market is illiquid and broken.
(1-b) Heightened volatility dries up liquidity, and depleting liquidity raises volatility zerohedge.com
If so, the CBs must inject liquidity, or act as buyer of last resort, not only of bonds, but of shares, and keep doing so until and unless we turn the corner, given that fate of empires are at burning stakes. Nothing else matters, else governments fall, now, even if we bake-in eventual fall later.
Not fixing the market is not a viable option.
When so corner-turned and market ‘fixed’, we march ever closer to the point of natural destination, TeoTwawKi, but the day is saved, for the immediate now.
If we do not turn the corner irrespective of officialdoms do, then nothing matters anyway. We complete triple-waterfall-zero-state systemic reset, now, so our kids can do better, later. Take that trade, for the greater good, and be fair.
(1-c) If we refuse to engage w/ risk of officialdoms succeeding w/ turning the corner by diluting us out the wazoo, we stand the more likely and very clear & present pattern-of-behavior danger of being massively diluted, without compensatory gains, and head into the next and undoubtedly closer spaced storm in much weakened state.
(1-d) I am bothered by the possibility of having to leverage in order to ‘truly’ win the round. I do not generally do leverage, not even for real estate, never mind listed financial instruments.
What I do may appear thrilling but actually is not, and certainly not the same as borrowing money. I sell options freely, front of mind, but only really buy the instruments to close out positions. Via options I am motivated primarily to accelerate to the end-story as opposed adding leverage, in some sense.
(1-e) Must act when market is broken, to prepare for when market is ‘fixed’
(2) The hedge funds must wager to make up for losses, and in alignment w/ above (1) they would likely engage w/ ever larger leverage dispensed by officialdom one or another or every which way to wager, up and down.
(2-a) Wagering up is dangerous, but they must do so, for wagering down is against the official dictate
(2-b) Wagering down is dangerous, but that does not mean they won’t try. Dividend-yielding shares are harder to wager against.
(2-c) Besides, cash is king, we already know that, and so cash yield is everything that matters, for we like cash and shall be needing it to flow.
(2-d) Sustainable cash flow? Am less picky here. Only need long-lasting-enough. Sustainable? Who can know what is sustainable except from the printing company with enough ink and paper.
(3) Given above (1) and (2), ‘they’ are going to fix our dividend-yielding yellow and black gold shares, and for-the-greater-good, let us pray they succeed, and let us prey in the chaotic darkness when all panicked and bum-rushed, herded in direction.
(4) We cannot decide where we should now be. We can decide where we want to be later. We want yield, capital gains, and to be in alignment with call of duty to save empires.
We know what we want, more or less, and each day there is more of what we want at less. We just need to decide on pacing.
(5) Had I voiced that FNV would go from 118 to 88 in a few short days I would have been and should have been institutionalized, and yet here we are. I am and intend to take more of the gifting, but carefully, by method and by pacing. No need to run into machine gun cross fire of retreating hedge funds even as all waiting for Fed deluge and fiscal reinforcement.
(6) :0) Must short more TSLA to finance, undergird, or otherwise make less expensive the building of asset castle before the true macro storm hits, especially now that we know by dress rehearsal what could be.
(7) We can be reasonably sure Mr market is playing with us, because what is happening is just silly as not only the baby, but mom and dad and the family pet gets thrown out with the baby, the baby sitter, and grandpa and grand ma.
If I am wrong, we do not have much to worry about anymore anyway.
The problem Mr market posed is self-resolving. |
