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SOCRATES PREMIUM ANALYSISTHE SOCRATES PREMIUM OVERVIEW COMMENTARY, NY GOLD NEAREST FUTURES AS OF THE CLOSE OF Thu. Mar. 12, 2020: NY Gold Nearest Futures closed today at 159030 and is trading up about 4.41% for the year from last year's closing of 152310. Reflecting on the Reversal System, the last Reversal on the Yearly level to be elected was Bullish. The Quarterly level also shows the last Reversal to be elected was Bullish. On the Monthly level, the last Reversal to be elected was also Bullish showing that the long-term level is still positive. The Weekly level shows that the last Reversal to be elected was also Bullish showing that the mid and long-term level is still positive. So far, this market has exceeded the previous year's high holding above last year's low. Nevertheless, this market is trading above last year's closing suggesting it is still in a bullish position on a broader perspective.
Always remember that the true definition of a bull or bear market is defined by its international value expressed in the major currencies. A market which is rising in proportion to the decline in the local currency is merely a market readjusting to the decline in the value of the currency. Do not be fooled by this type of trend for it is merely currency inflation given everything has a true international value which will be arbitraged.
PIVOT POINTS
Looking at our Pivot Points, the market is trading BELOW all three indicating numbers and that leaves this in a bearish position currently with resistance at 160836, 162440, and 165333 for this next trading session. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at, 159060, 160456, 164736, 168120. Opening above this area will cause it to become support.
OVERVIEW ANALYSIS
The NY Gold Nearest Futures made a new low penetrating the previous session's low and then closed below that level plunging significantly again by 6.66%. A break of today's low of 156040 during the next trading session will warn of a potential serious decline ahead. Making a new low will warn that this is more than a short-term reaction. This market has declined for 3 trading days which has been a sharp decline of 8.44%. In the process, we have elected two Daily Bearish Reversals. Don't forget that a Daily Bearish only indicates a lower low in the next trading session. The Forecast Array suggests possible days for lows.
The Uptrend Line from the last low created at 156400 tied to the secondary low made on 03/11 remains as resistance standing at 164095. Only getting above this level on a sustained closing basis will signal a rally to the upside.
Currently, the market remains bearish on the short-term levels of our indicators while the long-term trend is bearish and our cyclical strength is bullish. The current Daily Breakline rests at 155030. A penetration of that level intraday can lead to a sharp panic type decline if sustained.
We did close above the previous session's Intraday Crash Mode technical support indicator which was 157790 settling at 164230. The current crash mode support for this session was 159645 which we penetrated intraday and closed below warning this market is in a panic type sell-off. The Intraday Crash indicator for the next session will be 151244. Normally, when you open back above this pivot number or closed back above it then the sell-off is subsiding. So, watch this number which is dynamic for it changes with each session.
Change in Trend Indicator
Daily ........ -164383
Weekly ....... 157007
Monthly ...... 147523
Quarterly .... 130910
Yearly ....... 112340
Note: Negative means the market is trading below on that level on a closing basis. The broader change in trend takes place only on the monthly to yearly levels. Those looking for exit strategies may look at these numbers on a closing basis per level.
Factually, we have broken above last week's high and then turned and penetrated last week's low making an outside reversal to the downside. The market is trading below the previous week's close, which means we have generated a new set of What-If Weekly Reversals on both sides of the market. The Bullish Reversal stands above the present trading level at the general area of 165200 and a end of week closing above this level will signal a further rally ahead is likely. At the moment, we have exceeded last month's high so we have therefore generated a new What If Monthly Bearish Reversal which lies below the present trading level at the general area of 145970 and a month end closing beneath this level will be a sell signal for now.
Up to now, we have broken below last week's low and that means we have generated a new What-If Weekly Bullish Reversal which lies above the present trading level at the general area of 26325 warning that this decline has still not punched through important overhead resistance. A weekly closing beneath this level will keep this market in a bearish tone. Immediately, we have broken below last month's low and that means we have generated a new What-If Monthly Bullish Reversal which lies above the present trading level at the general area of 28565 warning that this decline has still not punched through important overhead resistance. A monthly closing beneath this level will keep this market in a bearish tone.
END OF WEEK
Up to this moment in time, this market is making a retest of the previous high of 154100 thereby it is still holding below resistance. So far this week the trading range has been 170430 to 156040. The market has made a new high this week and the extent of this rally has been 9 trading days. All four primary Weekly Bearish Reversals were elected from the low established back on the week of February 24th. The projected technical resistance this week stands at 157234 and 173560.
RECREATING TIME
Note: Time is relative so this model creates time so we have a Yearly Bullish/Bearish Reversal Each Day. This allows us to see if the broader trend is shifting instead of having to wait for year-end.
Based upon our Dynamic Yearly Models where time is relative, assuming today Thu. 12th would be constructively the end of the year, we are currently trading above all Dynamic Yearly Bullish Reversals for today's theoretical year-end closing. This is on all four dimensions implying we are still in a broader bullish trend for now. Keep in mind, that these are dynamic reversals good EXCLUSIVELY for today only.
We closed the previous month at 158790 after making a new high up two month from the low established back in January during 2019 at 151900. Currently, this market is still in a bullish posture above all our monthly indicating ranges. . The next Monthly Minor Bearish Reversal resides at 126780 whereas the next Monthly Major Bearish Reversal is to be found at 144610.
END OF QUARTER
. The projected overhead technical resistance stands at 161356. The projected technical support resides at 147833. The next Quarterly Minor Bullish Reversal stands at 199984. The next Quarterly Minor Bearish Reversal resides at 114150 whereas the next Quarterly Major Bearish Reversal is to be found at 120140. Immediately, the market is somewhat bullish on our indicating range models. However, the monthly level remains in a very bullish posture as is the case on the weekly level. We also have a Minor Monthly Bearish which is closer to the market right now. This resides at 126780 and therefore, even a month-end closing below this would signal a further retest of support is likely. Still, we do see underlying support forming in the 134970
Therefore, when we put this all together, the various timing levels require our focus on the following Bearish Reversals for the close of this quarter. The numbers to watch are: 144610 and 120140.
DAILY TECHNICAL OVERVIEW
The major high that took place was established on 03/09/2020 at 170430. Following the major high, this market has been consolidating.
The perspective from our Energy Models, the market is making new intraday lows in price while our Engergy Models are still postive, but declining right now.
OVERALL TREND
The NY Gold Nearest Futures is still in a bullish position on yearly level of our model suggesting the trend has not been reversed. The NY Gold Nearest Futures has exceeded last year's high making the 165336 years up. On the quarterly short-term level, this market is still bullish while the broader term is neutral to bullish. Turning to the monthly level, this market remains in a bullish position. Looking at the weekly level, this market is currently in a bullish position. The NY Gold Nearest Futures is in bearish position on the daily short-term level of our model while the broader term is also neutral to bearish. Overall, the posture is generally bullish for now.
QUARTERLY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS MODELS
After the historical high was established during 2011, a major low was created during the Fourth Quarter 2015 at 104540 which was 16 quarters from that major high. The Uptrend line resides at 138072 providing the technical underlying support. The top of the Uptrend Channel stands at 163386 which provides the general overall trading channel and only exceeding that on a closing basis will signal a real breakout to the upside while a break of the bottom defined by the Uptrend Line will signal a move to the downside thereafter.
Meanwhile, the Downtrend Line from that major high of 2011 to the subsequent reaction high of 156620 formed 32 quarters thereafter resides at 154386. This had provided the original technical resistance which has been exceeded and can potentially become support going forward. The post high low was established at 104540. We have elected both the two short-term Bullish Reversals from that important post high low on the quarterly level as well as the third Reversal leaving just the extreme long-term Bullish Reversal active at 86490.
The more recent Downtrend Line constructed from the last high of 156620 to the subsequent reaction high of 152900 established this quarter stands at 149180 while drawing a channel provides us with support at 93950. A break of this support with a closing below it will suggest a correction is unfolding. However, an intraday penetration of this support with a close back above would suggest that market could pause briefly.
WHAT-IF ANALYSIS
Employing our What-If Models, we see that we have Daily Bullish Reversals that would be generated if we see a another new low penetrating 156040. These hypothetical Bullish Reversals would stand at 157200, 166680, 168140, 169290, , and a close above the previous high 165100 would tend to suggest that these Reversals will then become fixed as long as the low holds thereafter for at least several days. Moreover, the election of any of these Bullish Reversals would signal a bounce is unfolding. However, if we continue to make new lows, then this WHAT-IF Reversals will be replaced by a new set until the low becomes fixed.
On our What-If Models, we see that we have Weekly Bearish Reversals that would be generated if we see a another new high penetrating 169280. These hypothetical Bearish Reversals would rest atMoreover, the election of any of these Bearish Reversals would signal a decline is unfolding. However, if we continue to make new highs, then this WHAT-IF Reversals will be replaced by a new set until the high becomes fixed.
Using our What-If Models, we see that we have Monthly Bearish Reversals that would be generated if we see a another new high penetrating 169170. These hypothetical Bearish Reversals would rest at 155110, 144620, 140630, 123830, 122660, , and a close below the previous low 155110 would tend to suggest that these Reversals will then become fixed as long as the high holds thereafter for at least several days. Moreover, the election of any of these Bearish Reversals would signal a decline is unfolding. However, if we continue to make new highs, then this WHAT-IF Reversals will be replaced by a new set until the high becomes fixed.
REVERSAL SYSTEM
Making use of our Reversal System, Using the Weekly level, the next Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 168710 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 156430. This provides a 7.27% trading range. Now moving to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 160440 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 144610. This, naturally, gives us the main broad trading range of a 9.86%.
REVERSAL MAP SYSTEM
-- DAILY -- | -- WEEKLY -- | - MONTHLY - |
----------------------------------------
157620 | 1 | 168710 | 1 | 160440 | 1 |
157490 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
155330 | 1 | 156190 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
155120 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
155100 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
154990 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
154920 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
154640 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
153030 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
151960 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
151740 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
148800 | 1 | 151060 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
147940 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
147700 | 1 | 147790 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
146320 | 1 | 147420 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
146290 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
146160 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
146130 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
145970 | 1 | 145970 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
145900 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
144950 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
144610 | 1 | ....... | 0 | 144610 | 1 |
142200 | 1 | 144290 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
141450 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
141100 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
140620 | 1 | 140620 | 1 | 140620 | 1 |
140350 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
140260 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
140200 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
139370 | 1 | 140130 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
139170 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
138460 | 1 | 138740 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
136120 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
134200 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
134130 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
133120 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
132970 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
132920 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
132460 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
132350 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
129240 | 1 | 131080 | 2 | ....... | 0 |
128030 | 1 | 128070 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
127510 | 1 | 128000 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
127500 | 2 | 127500 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
127320 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
RISK FACTORS
NY Gold Nearest Futures Risk Table
----------------- UPSIDE RISK ----- DOWNSIDE RISK ---
DAILY......... 168180 | 5.753% | 157620 | 0.886% |
WEEKLY........ 168710 | 6.086% | 156430 | 1.634% |
MONTHLY....... 160440 | 0.886% | 144610 | 9.067% |
QUARTERLY..... 179010 | 12.56% | 120140 | 24.45% |
YEARLY........ 179820 | 13.07% | 113030 | 28.92% |
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