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Strategies & Market Trends : TRIPLE TRADES -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (46)	3/14/2020 1:22:13 PM
From: robert b furman	1 Recommendation Recommended By Bull RidaH Respond to of 4397

Hi Bull, First off the bad news: For the first time in 90 years the Houston Rodeo (the largest in the world) has been canceled. The world's best Bull Riders can NOT ride. Now it's getting serious! As for the market, I'm of the belief that both the 1987 fast and furious collapse of the market and the Covid19 collapse of the market (which also was fast and furious) have one major attribute in common. They are both C waves of an expanding irregular flat. Like 1987, the recovery came back to make that fast and furious decline look small. I remember having to get a loan to pay off margin calls. I held onto everything and it worked out wonderfully. My broker at the time told me Joe Glanville told everyone to sell on the Friday before and that started a pandemic of fear with in the toppy and heavy market. It's not exact, but it rhymes. Both markets were at highs - B waves must be. Both C wave declines were very fast - the product of a pandemic of fear that produces panic. Panic makes people do dumb things and therein lies the opportunity of an inefficient marketplace. So I may not hit it perfectly, here in your triple play thread. One thing I know is airlines and cruise lines will in the long run recover. They're very rough right now. A lot like semi's in 2000 and banks in 2008. Both have room for being here in your triple play thread. Then there is what we've talked about and that is oil or oil companies. I've been of the mind that there has been a lot of hype about fossil fuel being made illegal and the world is warming up to where the seas and oceans will rise ( much like they've done before in ancient history). All due to CO2 levels rising. That's environmentalist spreading misinformation. I'm also of the belief that EV's will become a greater percent of car sales, but stay primarily an urban niche market. The hype I'm hearing is that EV's will make the internal combustion engine obsolete. That's the kind of stuff that makes TSLA of greater value than GM and F combined?. That's the kind of hype the internet was going to be so destructive that Walmart will be gone. Walmart reserved the right to embrace the internet and are doing quite well last I checked. I hear hype that Renewables wind and solar are cheaper than fossil fuel electricity, Never mind billions in rebates and very high maintenance expenses to keep them working. Oh and by the way we'll keep fossil fuel electricity plants for back up on those snowy rainy days when the sun doesn't shine. Now comes Covid 19 and I do agree that travel bans and large activities being canceled do and will reduce oil consumption. Quarantining cities and counties while shutting down schools and manufacturing will really shut down oil consumption. But a month does not make the forever future. Then the Saudi's decide to get into a market share grab with Russia and then cut the price below almost everyone's cost to produce and well below what the Saudi's need to fund their country. Somewhere out into the future they'll change from that stance! Meanwhile the world will continue to use oil for travel, and electrical generation will be done by gas in developed countries and coal in emerging markets. Somewhere in all that wrong thinking and huge overwhelming hype, coupled with an oligopoly errantly going after each other's customers, there is a triple to be made out of this multi cluster$$$$. Much like the semi's in 2000 and the banks in 2008 there's a play to be made that will take care of us the rest of our lives! It will make a triple look small. BUT we do need to think long term and be patient.Whats coming our way is more than a triple - it's a lifetime of dividends at a generational low acquisition price! As for the market, I think we turned last week. Trump's plan mirrors what has worked in S Korea and China. With one excellent exception. It will be broader and faster in regards to reaching the masses. That's because Trump is deploying more than just government, he's including the private sector with points of contact for testing. Early identification squashes the rate of spread! I don't think I've ever seen so much money being spread around so fast to so many. Reminiscent of Tarp - but that went only to banks. This is going to your grocery store and pharmacy. and free to the public masses. We have a pandemic of fear that is quickly being diffused. The reduced travel in air, on land, and on sea will quickly be reversed. Far quicker than the selling of repo'd homes and writing off inflated mortgages. The Saudi's will begin to realize selling oil below their competitor's costs and more importantly, their needed price is a dumb thing to do. The decreased demand coupled with a foolish cut in prices has the potential to be not just be a triple, but it also has the potential to be a quick turnaround much speedier than the semi's and banks had to endure. Clx 30 day average has reached a level that suggests a peak is very near (-7.73). December of 2018 hit (-4.97), May of 2015 30 day clx hit (-7.60).https://www.screencast.com/t/D9MzgwGV Note how the Dow recovered in 2015: Another fast drop (the QE taper tantrum) screencast.com Note the action of total put call ratio in the CBOE: in 2015: screencast.com similar to today's action today : screencast.com In November of 2008 ( a rough patch of infamy) 2cs reached a high of 463 , thursday it hit 446, that's close and with vxo dropping friday - I think we had peak fear much like June of 2015. These fast cascades down seem to have the ability for a quick recovery. Now this fear pandemic is global - it might have more bad news both here and elsewhere, but the fear of the unknown seems to be finding solutions and is subsiding. Lastly over on Wollie World, Joanne McCable has tracked the spread between 10 day clx and 10 dayclxpp which are both volume studies. As that spread diminishes the bottom spotter deactivates. Friday's close shows the bottom spotter to be quickly diminishing - the worst appears to be over and support for this major downtrend has held. screencast.com There's a couple of triples out there, but we got to swing to get around first base. I think, KMI, XOM, and CVX can get us to third and be home runs in the long run via high yielding dividends for as long as we own them. Semi's in 2000 Banks in 2008 Big Oils in 2020 (with big balance sheets) One thing for sure, Bonds are locked up and rates can't go any lower - they are at zero now! That's what my tea leaves are telling me! That's what my tea leaves are telling me. It appears that the total recovery is 1-2,maybe 3 months off with fits and starts. Bob

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (46)	3/19/2020 11:38:26 AM
From: Bull RidaH	1 Recommendation Recommended By kimberley Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 4397

Here's a stock with plenty of down slope left before reaching the chairlift back up....MTN to the 60's. Try that on for size birdie king.