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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RetiredNow who wrote (154414)	3/15/2020 7:52:24 PM
From: sense	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217830

I'm not challenged, particularly, in divining "where all of this is going"... eventually. But, that's not close to the same thing as answering the question... "where is all of this going... on Monday" ? So, a first goal, for me... is to figure out Monday's trade... knowing that the intensity is ramping up ON BOTH SIDES of the trade... as you see totally reckless policy being advanced as "whatever it takes" in terms of MOAR whether as QE, TARPs again, and promises of UNLIMITED LIQUIDITY... all being enlisted, whether its even true or not, in trying to stop the market from pricing in the risks that are becoming apparent. I think you don't ignore that people have been well enough trained that "you don't fight the Fed"... that at the minimum the pronouncements made already have had market impact... as apparent in Friday's trade, which I ducked out of, in part, because considering just that as a risk... The Fed meets on TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY... ? For my first purpose that means NOT ON MONDAY. Then, what can they actually do ? The whole issue, the last couple years, the grizzle veterans on the talk shows tell us, is that the Fed has been backing itself into a corner, "pushing on a string" and "running out of ammunition"... And, yep, sure enough... that's where we are... hunkered down in a fox hole, taking heavy fire, with nothing much left for us to do but throw rocks... Some of the more outrageous proposals out there will require Congressional action... The Federal Reserve has taken massive steps to help markets. Here's what's left in its arsenal Published Sun, Mar 15 202011:06 AM EDT I tend to agree that cutting rates again... is essentially eye wash... One reality in how long it takes for rates to matter in the real economy... another, I guess, in the impact of "trust" because "look, they're doing something"... even it is entirely pointless ? Nothing the Fed does is going to alter the impact of the virus, or how people behave as they come to grips with it impacting them already... on Monday. It's always been a punt... The issues since 2008 and before... aren't soluble using monetary policy... and now we're at the point where the long running fiction that they can be... is being tested... That leads, inevitably, to a failure... The FED simply CANNOT "fix" the economic impact of the virus with the tools available to them. And I, for one, don't see that as a reason to give them more tools... rather than reason to start pointing fingers where they SHOULD be pointed... But what I think... is highly unlikely to influence the trade tomorrow... in any way... other than in my own choices of how to play it ? About all I've got accomplished so far... is recanting on my blanket statement about avoiding leveraged ETFs... now only wanting to avoid those with disproportion in the risks tied to the circuit breakers... so maybe not very useful to focus on in the index based vehicles... if you're betting down. The oil funds... didn't have anyone's nanny stepping in to make the world safe for non-OPEC producers ? JNUG sure as hell didn't have any "circuit breakers" popping to protect the speculators there ? Still leaves me knowing how the trade, in things like gold and gold shares "should" be going... at a time when the government / pseudo-governmental banking powers that be... are all promising to print money like there's no tomorrow... ? So, why the sea change in the direction in gold and gold shares, on Feb 24th... when they'd been rising on the expectation of seeing EXACTLY the risks we see being realized right now ? Investors... are not necessarily rational... ? But the rational among us... still have to figure out what it is that they're going to do tomorrow ? On a day in the market that seems it will inevitably be an ATR > 6 kind of day...