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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lazarus_Long who wrote (13508)	1/26/1998 5:34:00 PM
From: Bull RidaH	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Dear James Consider the distinct possibilities of the following happening: 1. Clinton wiggles off the hook, as he has so many, many (Oh, did I remember to say...MANY)times before. They don't call him the "Comeback Kid" (among other things) for nothing. 2. 1st quarter Earnings, though not as stellar in growth as the prior few years, come in between 7 & 9% above year ago quarter (as a whole). With 10 year bond yields in the 5.6 to 5.7% range, and the shorter term rates finally giving way to the downside, analysts begin to see that slack in Asia will be taken up by strong growth inspired by low rates in the U.S.(helped along by the Fed and its relaxed monetary policy, and here's the kicker...how long before Greensp. decides to LOWER rates to catch up with the market, AND WHAT IMPACT WILL THIS HAVE ON THE STOCK MARKET?) We know lower rates allow for higher multiples in the markets...don't we? 3) it's already obvious that Europe's accelerating economies are offsetting Asia's weakness for many U.S. companies. And what about Intel management's statements that Asia, within a year, will resume it's position as the world's fastest growing economy? Could this be why those markets have already recovered 20-50+%? All I'm saying, James, is that in the short-term, these factors can all be explained away (rationally or irrationally, it really doesn't matter). And the "wall of worry" they've created creates a very attractive "short squeeze" scenario...besides, if you think about it, aren't these 3 items really all old news by now, creating a backdrop of negativity that allows the contrarian to come in and walk away with the goods? Good Luck! David