To: current trend who wrote (588 ) 2/2/1998 8:32:00 PM From: current trend Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 745
What may have been lost economically out of the Pacific Rim, will be picked up in other places---- by Joe Battipaglia, Chairman of Investment Policy 2/02/98 The U.S. economy turned in a terrific performance in the fourth quarter, rising 4.3% (subject to revision). The important aspect of this is that the major industrialized countries, particularly the United States and Europe, are coming along nicely in terms of economic growth for 1998. In addition, we expect Latin America to make an even more meaningful contribution this year relative to last year. So in essence, what may have been lost economically out of the Pacific Rim, will be picked up in other places. It then becomes a matter of focusing on the banking crisis country by country, which is exactly the thrust of the Treasury's effort in the region. We believe that each IMF plan that is put in place in Asia will help those markets rebound. It is a process that is already underway, with most of those markets rebounding overnight. Indeed, Alan Greenspan is even taking note of the positive benefits coming out of this readjustment of currencies. He notes that although our economy is strong, there are no inflationary pressures to worry about at this time. Although he sees some impact on our economy, on balance he is pleased with where we are. I believe he is setting us up to start cutting interest rates. I think Fed Funds rates still remain a bit high. We will see the Fed get together this week where they may decide to pass on doing anything now but in March they have another crack at lowering it. Recent corporate transactions are of an important note here. Compaq's (CPQ-NYSE-$30 3/16-Not Rated) acquisition of Digital (DEC-NYSE-$56 9/16-Not Rated) and Glaxo Wellcome's (GLX-NYSE-$53 3/16-Hold) attempt to merge with SmithKline Beechman (SBH-NYSE-$63 1/8-Hold), speaks to the fact that there will continue to be mega deals done in almost every area of business activity. We think this is a major theme event for 1998 that will continue to enliven all the groups of securities out there. Between a good economy in the United States, the merger and consolidation theme, overall price stability, lower interest rates and fairly high consumer confidence should yield another positive year for financial assets. There is a little more to be had in bonds but most of the good news is already factored in them. We believe being fully invested at this time is the right posture. This report is only a summary of research reports published by Gruntal & Co., L.L.C