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Strategies & Market Trends : Underexposed Technical Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kimberley who wrote (804)	3/19/2020 12:56:16 PM
From: Underexposed	2 Recommendations Recommended By George Statham kimberley Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 914

Hi Kimberly Things are pretty rough in Calgary, Alberta, a province of 4.7 million people of which about 25% live in and around Calgary. Of the 119 cases of the Covid-19 virus found in the province we are the epicenter with 83 confined cases and in the province we are increasing that total number by about 22 per day. As a whole the city is lockdown. We can still move about but all movie theaters, sports venues and essentially any gatherings of people are limited to I think it is either 10 or 50 people. I went shopping for groceries last week and was shocked by the empty shelves of major groups of foods and cleaning goods. I stocked up on about 2-3 weeks of food and since I am a target for this virus being over 65 and my immune system is lower due to my health problems in December, I don't go out of my apartment unless it is in the late evening when few people are around. I love going to movies...I went to my normal theater Monday but though the internet said it was open it was closed. I went to a nearby Denny's that usually very popular here as it is open 24hours....I was the only one in the place and they had every second table blocked of to maintain distance between patrons...quite a shock to see. A second run theater which is very good was open on Monday so I decided to see a late movie the next day.... but it was closed.... The city is still basically functional...transit still runs but buses want you to enter by the back door to reduce exposure of the driver. Hospitals are open of course but no children allowed and no adults, who are not afflicted with the virus, are allowed into the hospitals. All classes k-12 as well as universities are cancelled until September. I am a singer by hobby but won't do karaoke for a looooonnnnngggg time. Now they have suspended all travel to the USA except for commercial trucking...it is by mutual agreement with the Trump admin. The markets here are bad like they are in the USA. But the O&G market is being killed here. Our only export of oil goes to the USA...we are land locked for the most part and though we have oil reserves equivalent to most middle East countries we don't get world price...the USA gets a 26% discount off world price....the so called Western Select Price.... of course due to the virus the price was driven dow and then the battle between the Russians and Saudis has driven it down further. NOW Canada gets the princely sum of less than $10/barrel for their oil.... Companies whose share value was over $25/share are now worth $1 and still dropping. Financially I am ok .... I am 90% cash now and had allocated enough dollars over my investment to last to August...It should last longer since I hardly spend money now. So that is what it is like here in Calgary...I think we will do ok as all these measures are in place now and not in 2-4 weeks when all heII will break loose. Anyway lets look at your chart I never understood why day traders like a weekly main chart but choose fast response indicators. I suspect you want me to discuss pivot points....but I don't really know them but it seems on a weekly basis to be crashing through the supports. I use my TRIGGER chart to monitor for a bottom of a falling knife along with my Sentiment chart The trigger chart is most useful....I use the sentiment chart just for some details that I cannot easily see in the trigger chart. Starting at the bottom of the trigger chart The circle is around what I call my MACD/BBWidth squeeze... this is not an absolute finding of a bottom necessarily (though it could be) but it will establish at least a stopping point....a major rest. That will happen when the MACD and the BBWidth reverse directions. It has shown it wanted to do this in the recent past but always did not complete the reversal. Like today.... there is a hint of reversal now.... but will it do it??? that is the question and so far the answer is NO. Now we work our way upward to the SLOW Sto CAUTION: if you like the way I approach things YOU MUST use the parameters I use...if you use other parameters for indicators you won't get the same result as I see.... this applies to ALL my charts The Slow Sto is not moving a muscle...it is stuck in the mud under 20. Unless it rises like it did in early March you have no hope of a bottom. Now we move up to the main chart and the rollercoaster that daytraders use....but they don't use this chart like me.... they cannot because for a reason I don't understand they use a weekly chart often....a weekly chart is more of a long term trader tool IMHO What I watch for is the closes below the lower Bollie...you see many of them in the last month....but you never see more than 5 in a row...it is usually 2-3 before there is a rise and they enter the Bollie envelope when they re-enter the envelop they will reach for the 20daySMA....it would be bullish if they passed the 20daySMA it might be the end of a negative run if the price reached the 20daySMA and oscillated around it going sideways.... that is a good sign but I would still wait for the result of a Bollie squeeze.... the stock is in a bearish consolation period.... if the stock broke out of a bollie squeeze that would be a true long play. Right now we are still bearishly tracking the lower bollie Now I cannot really see the Lower bollie in the trigger chart so I will look at the Sentiment chart. The indicators show absolutely no bullish qualities at all so I just glance at them and move on The par sar is getting close to the share price.... touching the share price would be encouraging but not definitive unless it was in the throat of a Bollie squeeze What I am really looking for is a sign that the lower bollie is reversing direction ... but looking at it the lower bollie is straight arrow down There is not even a smell of a bottom yet. Here is what I am looking for showing the last dip of the $SPX There were 2 MACD/BBWidth squeezes.... the first was a rest...see that lack of response of the Slow Sto then The second is a true bottom....see how the Slow Sto took off afterward. Your pivot points don't tell me much except for potential support/resistances....but I can usually find those in P&F charts.... but the MACD/BBWidth (my discovery....you won't find this in any book) tells a good story. remember my caution. This is a true LONG TERM trader view....not a daytrader long which may last 2 days if that. I don't daytrade so my skills there are limited. UE