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To: slacker711 who wrote (36349)3/23/2020 10:12:06 AM
From: neolibRespond to of 73889
 
Yeah, its astonishing that we can't answer such basic questions this far into things. Also, what is the ultimate infection %.

I would think that reasonable estimates could be had of the latter by sampling households of any infected person. Given that people are infectious for a few days prior to symptoms, then an estimate of what fraction of their household also got infected should give an estimate for the population at large, although the fact that genetics are related in the household might bias that. But surely epidemiologists have all sorts of models for this.



To: slacker711 who wrote (36349)3/23/2020 10:14:02 AM
From: neolibRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 73889
 
IMHO, the biggest question that we should be diligently seeking an answer too, is whether China's numbers are believable, and did they actually succeed in stopping cold the spread inside China. The rest of the world needs to know if that is true. The USA should be engaging with China to get US experts on the ground in Wuhan and see what is really going on.


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