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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (155102)	3/23/2020 7:40:20 PM
From: sense	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218074

I do think there was a real market justification for the initial transition, as the virus took down electronics manufacturing in China, which is half the silver demand, but hadn't yet impacted all the mining and refining activities. That took down a huge chunk of silver demand... and left the supply largely intact. Now we have the reverse situation, sort of... as China, one hopes, is emerging from the worst of their virus experience, electronics manufacturing might resume... but they have no customers... so it won't. But, at the same time the rest of the world is now wallowing in virus... so not only are we not shopping for electronics, we're also not mining and refining silver ? More true, because a huge of chunk of supply comes from copper mining, and copper is dead along with its basic industrial demand customers... and the lowest cost copper miners, the only ones still working, produce vastly less silver than the high cost producers ? So now, we're in balance again as far as industry... since both mining/refining and manufacturing are dead. But, now we're way out of whack on the investment side... as demand is insane... and there is no supply. How do you game how this plays out... between now and... whenever everyone goes back to work ? We are STUCK with the HUGE demand... and NO supply... until everything goes back to normal... Except... we're not heading to "normal" right now... we're heading to OMG !!! #$%^Y&$%^&* !!!! In addition to the virus wreaking havoc... we're also in the middle of a market failure... which is rapidly accelerating into a HUGE financial crisis ? Today... the Fed shot not only everything they have at the problem, they shot everything they ever will have at the problem... and more... And what happened ? The market went up 5% for about 5 minutes... and then sold off again" because the Fed today announced QE TO INFINITY... clearly risking hyper-inflation. Where were we... before today ? Investment demand... normally 25% or so of the market... had already increased toward 50% recently... and right now the investment demand is 4 to 5 times higher than normal... so it exceeds normal demand with the electronics... without them... at a time when there probably ISN'T ANY SUPPLY because... people aren't working. How long will that last ? I think it doesn't matter... because there is real demand RIGHT NOW... that can't be met... while the financial system, depending on the day, is alternately imploding one day, and exploding the next... all of that still, BEFORE they announced QE TO INFINITY today... Give that a day or two to digest.... that the Fed shot its entire wad today... and it had no real effect ? They shouldn't have done it, of course... not yet in any case... have done it and had it FAIL ? Tomorrow will be an interesting day... don't know what to expect... probably "a pause"... relative to recent market accelerations... while people sit and think for a minute... numbed... just wanting it to stop ? Or, could be the opposite... another limit down event long before the open ? Probably depends on how well people digest today's news... That creates a few new wrinkles no one was expecting. Gold and silver bugs... have expected to see this economic and market catastrophe happen, much as we are seeing it unfold now, expecting it for a long time... but no one I know expected it would occur, this way, so that at the same time when demand was exploding as they expected...there would be ZERO access to the supply... which seems it is almost completely shut down ? Those thinking they might take profits after metals rocket higher ? Most probably won't let go of the metal now, because the financial risks are too large to even think about swapping hard money for paper fiat... particularly when they just told you they're going to devalue the heck out of it starting tomorrow ... How long will any of that... the virus, the demand and supply issues, and the financial risks...take to resolve ? Does it matter... because as and when it is resolved... that will only be another positive for silver... relative to the current already badly beaten down price... after years of efforts made devaluing silver in the market to artificially pump up the value of the fiat... that they've said they're going to print into toilet paper tomorrow? People expecting markets, now, gold and silver in particular, will follow the same path, the same timeline, as they did in 2008 to 2011 ? We are so far removed from 2008 - 2011 that we might as well be on a different planet... Hello ? This is not 2008 ? Why are dealers still selling silver at all ? Only because they can get you to pay for it right now... knowing they aren't going to be ABLE to deliver it to you until AFTER "the virus crisis" is over ? They're not selling physical inventory they hold in hand... but, the dealers have now all become "paper silver" vendors, too... They're selling you a promise to deliver silver at some price PAID NOW... with a LONG delivery delay... with you owning the risk of assuming the financial system doesn't entirely evaporate tomorrow ? I wouldn't buy physical from a dealer now... and get only a "promise to deliver" in the future. I'd buy it instead from "some guy I can't trust" on E-bay... who actually has the silver he owns, in hand, ready to sell it and ship it to me tomorrow ? Right now... you are not a customer... but in competition with the dealers to get silver... and shouldn't be buying it from them... unless they can ship it right now...