Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Effective Collaboration - Team Research for Better Returns: -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (5660)	3/24/2020 11:53:01 AM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8255

You probably don't know this, but I made my contagion/transmission model a couple of weeks ago and it has been damn accurate so far. I've been discussing it on Soux's thread since yesterday. Long story short - unless they manage to flatten the curve, expect a 10x increase every 8 days. So by Friday you are looking at 100k and by Easter Sunday 1M infections. Those numbers will shock and scare a lot of people. I expect some form of "medical martial law" and possibly armed conflict with people who will want to implement their own solutions. The potential is there for this to really go bad. On the other hand, maybe the government gets scared enough this weekend to finally get serious about flattening the curve. The curve ball is the number of unreported/untested infections. I've estimated a minimum of 3x the infections as is being reported. Which means even after they clamp down, the number will seem accelerating. You will have to use the mortality data to estimate the actual number of infections.

To: The Ox who wrote (5660)	3/24/2020 12:33:52 PM
From: Return to Sender	1 Recommendation Recommended By The Ox Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 8255

Looks like a 90% Upside day on the NYSE today. At first I was thinking short covering rally in a bear market. Maybe not!?! marketwatch.com RtS

To: The Ox who wrote (5660)	3/24/2020 8:38:31 PM
From: Investor2	1 Recommendation Recommended By The Ox Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8255

Re: "New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said a “troubling and astronomical” number of coronavirus cases have increased the urgency across the state for more hospital beds as the pace of COVID-19 cases accelerates." Many, many people are fleeing New York and going to other parts of the country to escape the coronavirus. This will rapidly spread the virus into previously "clean" areas. China blocked such exodus from Wuhan. Best wishes, I2