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Politics : Sioux Nation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (324007)	3/24/2020 5:31:24 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 362302

It seems scary to me too. So I hope that I am wrong. But so far I've been getting every number right. I put them on my calendar ahead of time so I know what to validate when. But as I said, my model is bound to breakdown at some point. On the other hand, you may have noticed that they have not published any projections or epidemiological models. I am guessing that is because in addition to all the ambiguity involved, they know how bad it is going to get. So check back on Monday, and if we are not close to 200k (assuming they still report it honestly) then I know that I have to change the model parameters. Most people have difficulty fathoming exponential growth. Suppose that you are filling in a 100,000 stadium at an exponential rate that doubles everyday. And say that it took you a month to fill it in 1/4 full (25k). How long would it take to fill it up? Most people, especially if they have been watching it day in and day out and feeling like paint drying, will not realize that in 2 days their stadium will fill out. It is the same with the infection, only the rate can be changed. But if we don't change it, then yes, we will have one million people infected within 2 weeks.

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (324007)	3/24/2020 5:37:39 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Respond to of 362302

One more thing. Exponential growth does not exist in nature. What exists is "logistic curve." It is an exponential growth that changes to an exponential decay. The middle part is called the inflection point. You will recognize the inflection point when the number of new cases (or death) is the same from one week to next. Then you know things have turned a corner.

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (324007)	3/24/2020 5:59:53 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 362302

Why does John Hopkins say 1.3%? Head over to worldometers.info As of now, the US has 685 deaths and 53k cases. So on the surface, this is 1.3% that matches JH number. BUT the majority of the reported numbers have been discovered over the past few days. Whereas the people who died got sick at least a week ago. So if you go back and check how many people were known to be sick 1 week ago, that number is 4663. Divide the two and you get a very alarming number! I based my number on the Chinese total, which is in the same ballpark as as WHO's number.