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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: TobagoJack who wrote (155398)3/27/2020 11:39:00 AM
From: Horgad2 Recommendations

Recommended By
marcher
sense

  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 218180
 
Still too short of a window to be super meaningful, but I am keeping an eye on it. I am even thinking about a paired trade. Short GLD and long PHYS. IE more papery gold versus less papery gold. In the past these gaps/divergences have closed fairly quickly but maybe not this time.

Recent GLD/PHYS divergence




To: TobagoJack who wrote (155398)3/27/2020 12:00:39 PM
From: bull_dozer  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 218180
 
Gold’s Gone Wild!

Headline’s gone wild today. For example, one public gold company CEO tweeted:

“Today, some banks failed to deliver physical in the COMEX bar EFP. As a result, these banks suffered large losses…There remains a big shortage in physical in the COMEX denomination. So, rumors are, the COMEX will announce a force majeure…”

Ignoring his sloppy understanding of the market and its terminology, this tweet gives us a sense that you better buy gold now before it’s too late.

Or, consider this headline:

“Gold bid/offer spreads blow out to $100 in loco London market”

The bid-offer spread is normally $0.20, so $100 would indeed indicate crazy market conditions.

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It should be pretty obvious that the lease rate has collapsed. The collapse is very sudden starting on Thursday, March 19.

Recall that the gold lease rate is:

Lease Rate = LIBOR – GOFO

In other words, either LIBOR (the bank cost for credit) has dropped through the floor, or else the gold forward rate (closely related to the basis) has skyrocketed. We saw, above, that the basis has skyrocketed. The dropping lease rate is confirmation that gold is abundant. You’d expect that the cost to lease something would rise in case of scarcity and fall in case of abundance.

This gives us an uneasy feeling about gold at $1,600.

zerohedge.com



To: TobagoJack who wrote (155398)3/28/2020 2:18:35 AM
From: sense3 Recommendations

Recommended By
dvdw©
Pogeu Mahone
Secret_Agent_Man

  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 218180
 
refining capacity isn’t a problem -- there’s easily enough plants still operating to meet demand.

Apologies in advance for the crudities if anyone is offended, but...

Welcome to the wild west... this is not your mothers tea garden...

How can you tell they're lying ? Their lips are moving.

The Swiss shut in 80% of global refining capacity... on Thursday... and it will be out for a long time. Months. The mines are also shut down... and there's not much transportation of things deemed non-essential ? Meanwhile, real demand for good delivery product is up somewhere between 500 and 1000 percent ? Demand is up... supply is down... so, naturally, prices are cratering.

The refiners being shut in is still not as big a deal as it sounds... because gold doesn't really have any utility other than sitting around looking good... and there's quite a lot of it just sitting around. Much of it, unfortunately for them, is a generation out of style... wearing the wrong styles in the wrong sizes, just looking a bit too frumpy for the market today. And the only ones who can fix that are the refiners... who won't. So, the rest is just a negotiation over price... where price is only half the issue... with the other half being... good delivery required... and no faking it this time on either price or delivery ? But there's the rub... because the entire "market" is based on fake prices... and they never intend to deliver... so when the only solution to the market problem is real prices and real delivery... well then, the only thing that's not working because of the virus imposing problems... is the fraud of fake prices and no delivery ?

Perhaps you could train gold to lounge around in a bubble bath touting penny stocks ? Or, the exact same thing in the opposite, as touting a Tim Sykes short raid on some unsuspecting company and its shareholders... where the hired eye candy poses, and obviously intends to distract observers from the product actually being sold... while doing nothing to mask the morality of what's intended ?

Of course, as it sits around looking good, as the desirous ogle... there's also a fee involved in being allowed to use gold that way, to have the owners pretend its available for purchase and others use, while no one involved in that trade has to work very hard at pretending to not have values ? You didn't see them right there in the hot tub... only because they were hiding under the water ?

Maybe nice to look at... we're hard wired that way... but don't marry the bimbo. And, of course, as you consider it... also correctly surmise what that too obvious situation being presented to you... also requires is true of the front man ?

And the same is true of all those behind the scenes facilitating the "trade"... ?

The gold and silver trade today... are looking like an isolated boom town in a gold rush. The place was a patch of desert yesterday... and today there's 25,000 people building shacks, digging in the dirt, and scrapping over every little nugget.

Given the sudden luck of a few... and the unmet desires of the many crowding the place... there's now a huge shortage of whores in the remote gold camp... which has J.P. Morgan is saying... "What, no, there's plenty of whores here in London" ? And while that may be true enough... the purveyors out in the field have no product to sell to the eager and willing buyers ?

The whores in London, even with internet porn, just can't get a handle on what needs doing in person somewhere else... which can only happen with the FACT of both: real prices, and good delivery of the physical product ?

Re-hypothecating the lie of price, of ownership without possession, and "delivery" with no change of control in possession... because "trust us it has been delivered to you... you have it now"... when clearly you don't have it at all ? That long running scam.... given the changes occurring now... doesn't begin to fulfill the ACTUAL delivery requirement, much less allow a trade at REAL prices for that real delivery... not the fake prices based on the fraud of "lending" it you... to use for a time... like a lease on eye candy ?

Marrying the right girl... is not the same thing as looking at a photo on the internet... while Tim Sykes promises that she loves you and you're going to be happy ?

So, the only answer we get now from J.P. Morgan... is a well designed and professionally executed scheme intended to, and succeeding in, suppressing the market price of whores in London ? Yeah. Perfect. That solves the problem...

/s