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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (63553)	3/27/2020 3:08:34 PM
From: bruwin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78778

There's also this inclination that some "Investors(?)" have of taking Cognizance of what "New" management say they will be doing with an "AILING" company ...."We're gonna reduce debt", or "We're gonna improve Cash Flow", or "We're gonna 'modify'/'revise' our Brand to suit ..... whatever" ... And then these "Investors(?)" start "Salivating" at the "Prospects(?)" that Must Come from these "Near Divine" Proposals and Forecasts, FIRM IN THE BELIEF that these REVELATIONS WILL COME TO PASS ........ "After all, 'new' Management SAID SO !!!" They don't stop to think, Just For A Brief Moment, that maybe it would be Prudent, and even possibly WISE (Heaven Forbid), to WAIT AND SEE IF "new" Management WILL ACTUALLY ACHIEVE THEIR PROMISED OBJECTIVES, BEFORE THEY COMMIT THEIR HARD EARNED CASH TO THIS "BET". And it is JUST THAT .... a BET. There's virtually nothing to interrogate as to what the outcome will be. In fact, what there is there to interrogate doesn't look like it's a GOOD BET. Ah well, it's their money and their choice ........... P.S. "Nya_Qua laid out a case for the company, but I couldn't see it (comprehend it)" Rest assured, you're not alone ..... NOR could I.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (63553)	3/27/2020 3:42:30 PM
From: Nya_Quy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78778

TLRD. Was also wondering. Maybe it's all in the financials as with cash flow projections or something. Nya_Qua laid out a case for the company, but I couldn't see it (comprehend it). You are very warm, Paul! The trick is looking at the company in terms of its free cash flows (i.e. also treating leases as any other kind of interest-bearing debt). This reveals the company is having no problems in term of being cash flow positive, but rather in terms of using the generated amounts of cash. In an normal business environment TLRD should be able to be making more than $300 mln in unlevered FCF, or about $100 mln in normalized levered FCF (lease payments are already subtracted from this amount). Current market cap is about the same as the levered FCF. All FCFs figures are given after-tax. With regard to the current use of capital by the company. It has already eliminated dividend payments in favor of debt reduction and share buybacks. Noteworthy also is TLRD's recent sale of its Joseph Abbouds trademarks for cash, while simultaneously entering into an exclusive licensing agreement with the buyer. -- Nya -- P.S. Yesterday, or so, Burry filed another 13-D stating he has increased his stake to about 8% of total outstanding shares.