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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ggersh who wrote (155463)	3/28/2020 6:26:40 PM
From: sense	Respond to of 219660

Point of relative value. Most of them are. I don't need or have much use for stock pickers flogging stocks. But, no quibbles with them doing it, if they do it well... Generally, they don't. Find it particularly annoying when those same clueless people flog themselves as "having the answer"... advocating for some thing... when they obviously don't have a clue. Just recognize... they're all in business... to part you from your money, not make you more of it. If they were actually good at it... they'd mostly not be stuck in the business of writing newsletters ? Big picture perspective is worth more... if it is worth anything... How do you sort out who has the better big picture... prior to the proof in the outcome in your portfolio ? Even Davidson... right about the big picture... wrong on his timing... by about 30 or 40 years ? So, what's the value of being right if it isn't actionable ? There's also an unspoken code in the industry... that you don't diss them... because they advantage the industry... who love having investors doing no better than the newsletters allow them to be. So, even when you find someone talking about them... they'll bias everything to neutrality... or else they'll diss them in favor of "professional advisors" that cost far more... perform even less well... but, even after giving you a lot of truth about issues with newsletters... they'll end up saying... diversify and buy more of them ? Really ? They're not that good... so more will probably be better ? Paul Merriman at least gets close to the mark... not in his own ratings there... but in referencing one that WAS actually worth the paper it was printed on: Hulbert Financial Digest used to rates all the newsletters for performance... They also have a pricey service or two you can sign up for now... but the key lesson is still there in the freely accessible web info... which shows that almost every single one of the newsletters or advisers... when a proper accounting is done... grossly under-performs the market averages. There will be a few exceptions. Worth knowing who those are. Pay Hulbert to find them ? Nah, just Google "Hulbert #1 rated" or something like that... and, sure, you can pay $10K to get advice you still don't need... from Alpha Profit... But buy an index fund... and you'll do way better in the market than the vast majority of the professionals. What the Hulbert Financial Digest really taught us It is possible to beat the averages... if you develop the skills yourself. But, it mostly isn't possible for you to do that by following someone else's recommendations ? Same is true of timing the market. You can do it... but you can't do it well by following someone else telling you they're going to be doing it for you ? It requires paying attention... and the whole point of buying the news letter.... is to have them do it for you ? If there is someone with a hot hand... as Peter Lynch was at Fidelity... or as Warren Buffett has been forever at Berkshire... you'll probably find out about it at some point... and you might try to duplicate their success ? Buy what they buy ? But, to make that work... you need more than the same picks... you need the same strategy... the same timing ? Or, just buy a fund Lynch manages... or buy shares of Berkshire ? Buffett will tell you... he's massively handicapped by his success. He can't buy things he used to... or generate the returns he used to... because Berkshire is just too big to be able to do that any more and have it make sense. So, go be Warren Buffett ? There's nothing preventing the next Buffett from doing that ? Google yourself "how to be Warren Buffett" and no shortage of hits. Here's one: How to Invest Like Warren Buffett: A Step-by-Step Guide But nobody does it ? And, they all leave out the first and most important bit: Warren works his ass off. It's not a hobby. Doing what Warren does is hard work. But, if you do it... you can choose when and how often to work hard... and since you aren't looking to trade, but to "own companies" you intend to own long term ? Still a chasm between "having the right idea" for a trade... and doing the work on optimizing that idea... and executing that idea successfully to make money with it ? Warren Buffett doesn't "buy stocks"... he improves the companies he buys... forces them to improve. When he "buys a stock" he's essentially becoming the new management team ? A bit more to it at Berkshire than just being a good stock picker... and timing the market and your trades.. Even if the recommendations some guy gives you... appear sound... do more homework than the letter writer... to find what he missed in terms of risks, or timing... better odds with another competitor... and, as always, your outcome still depends on your timing your trades? How do you know the letter writer is not being paid to "discover" some massive "hidden" opportunity... ? That is the business a lot of these guys are in... and there's not much stopping them. I think a lot of people spend a lot of money on newsletters... because they lack confidence... and want to not have the need to do the hard work themselves, of sifting stocks to find hidden gems, but also want to not shoulder the burden of financial responsibility themselves... so basically they're paying the fee to have someone else to blame if things don't pan out. And when the approach fails... they'll find some other letter writer to put faith in... until... etc. It's inevitably like subscribing to a newsletter to tell you where to go fishing right now... it is dated info already before it was published... when what you need to do is learn how to figure out how to read that for yourself ? Hire a guide ? Sure. Learn more faster that way... if you have someone showing you the ropes in a new area... How do you do that in the market ? Is the newsletter teaching you "how to"... or just telling you what to do ? There are analysts with things to say that are worth hearing. If Peter Lynch were to drop stock tips on you I'd listen... but, does anyone today have a similar track record ? One, perhaps ? Motley Fool ? But, are their big winners... actually representative of overall returns ? I'd say generally... develop the skills yourself... and save your dime on the newsletter... Exceptions I'd say for Value Line which is more of "a tool" than just "advice" ? They'll probably have it at the local library in the reference section... worth checking out if you haven't been made aware of it... The rest will be promoted... they'll try to hook you with some "secret" opportunity they have... but subscribe to find out about it ? Stock Gumshoe