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Technology Stocks : ADC Telecommunications -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Doug who wrote (265)	1/26/1998 8:08:00 PM
From: geoffrey Wren	Respond to of 1944

Harold: If they are losing market share, then the market must be growing at an incredible pace. If you look at the 12 year stock performance on this stock, it is pretty phenomenal even with today's debacle. And this tracks earnings of course, as the stock historically trades for something like 30-40x earnings (until the last month that is!). My worry is more that the industry growth may be levelling out. Other companies like ORTL and HLIT have taken their hits after making announcements of lower projected sales. But my hunch is that there is plenty of room left for growth. Once (and if) an agreed standard for the information highway into the home is established, there is room for resumed double-digit growth, here and abroad. I am seriously thinking of getting some ADCT. I recently sold half my holdings at about 36, it seemed rather expensive at that price. At 17 it looks nice. It might be worth putting in a limit order for purchase at 15, as the price might dip down first thing in the morning, but if it does, it won't stay down there for long. just mo Geoff Wren

To: Doug who wrote (265)	1/27/1998 8:43:00 AM
From: JZGalt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1944

<< What is interesting is that all ADCT's competitors seem to be doing better. >> The contrast _is_ remarkable, but a great deal of heat was made because the news media was reporting two analyst guidances in a short time span. FWIW, I think that was incorrect. If you read the press releases you should be able to see that the newest release on Friday after the close was a clarification of the first. adc.com adc.com These dual releases are being used as evidence that management was less than credible in the first press release on the 15th. One thing that struck me in reading both the press releases and the various brokerage reports was that apparently the idea that ADC's products being resold in Asia via OEM agreements with Ericsson and Nokia was not included in the discussions with analysts about the low indications of 3-4% of sales in the region. Now I'm not going to argue the merits of ADCT at $17, but if the analysts believe they have been "mislead" they will not return in any short timeframe unless the misgivings they have are changed. As evidence, I would point toward ASND. ---- Dave