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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: TobagoJack who wrote (155834)4/3/2020 4:18:00 AM
From: sense  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 218746
 
On China...

I think it was reasonable to be grudgingly optimistic when Deng set China on a path of liberalization.

I have great confidence in the Chinese people... how can you not with the obvious examples in Hong Kong and Taiwan... but the Chinese are no better than anyone else has been at making sense of a hopelessly deficient and corrupt set of political beliefs...

Communism is a deficient idea... deficient in its origin... so flawed in its concepts that it could never work as it fundamentally misjudges what it is to be human. Communism is fundamentally materialistic and otherwise unprincipled... and largely fails for that reason. Appending it with enough capitalism to hope to make it economically functional... only converts it into national socialism... which has a better track record in making trains run on time... but it is very far from an aspirational ideal, as we saw proven too frequently in the prior century.

In result, China, like most of Europe, politically, remains mired in the middle ages... apparently very adept at seeking ways to avoid dealing with the political incongruities that modern life imposes... but in fact that appearance is only the result when the freedom to express dissent is suppressed. Political philosophy that has not advanced beyond understanding persons as the property of the king, or of the state in his stead...while posturing themselves as "more enlightened" ? They'd leave me amused if the consequences of embracing the error were not so often proven truly dire for humanity.

More pragmatically, I have very little confidence that Xi has the ability to hold China together, much less make a success of it while deliberately reversing path from the course Deng had set. The model of leadership Xi has aspired to is inherently brittle... a key reason that the failure in dealing with the virus, after having boasted of it as his signature, is potentially an existential risk for China's current leadership.

In broad result, I think China's expectations will not be met... and that, with an inevitability that I understand many Chinese will fail to comprehend... as things have seemed to be going so well...