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Strategies & Market Trends : Dividend investing for retirement -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: geoffrey Wren who wrote (32598)	4/5/2020 10:11:27 PM
From: Kip S	Respond to of 34328

I spent a a bit of time and effort looking for dividends' behavior during the Great Depression. I found the kind of data you referenced, but also found some that talked about declines of 40% and 50%. Obviously, the starting and ending dates matter a lot, as do whether you look at a month, a quarter, a year... Overall, I certainly feel fine about my conclusion that: I think it's safe to conclude that, based on our economic history, dividends decline much less than stock prices during periods of economic and financial market distress, with the caveat that very severe and protracted downturns still pose a significant income risk. ----- I did a long post on an(other) investment board cautioning people that they should expect headline numbers for Q2 GDP declines in the range of 20%-25% to 40%-ish. I also explained why those "headline numbers" in a sense may overstate how bad things are. They are one-quarter numbers that are annualized. I won't go into much detail here--folks may know all this already. However, If actual output drops by 10% from Q4 2019 to Q1 2020--something I certainly see as possible--the annualized rate of decline (the "headline number") will be -34% (not -40%). If the actual drop is 6%, that will annualize to -22%. So we should be prepared for numbers like that, IMO. Everybody reading this may know this already, but if anyone is unclear, I'd be happy to explicate in a bit more detail.