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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Andrew H who wrote (13792)1/26/1998 9:41:00 PM
From: Henry Niman  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 32384
 
Andy, I also think that the $60 target price is low. I haven't looked at the entire sector, but I did see that AMLN fell as low as 4 1/4 today, so there is clearly some selling in the sector. LGND does have a tendancy to drift lower on no news and I'm not sure what is going to be announced on the LLY compound (or lack thereof), leptin, and Phase II data, all of which are due out fairly soon. Of course I think that LGND at $12 is EXTREMELY cheap, and even short term investors who buy now, should be all smiles soon.



To: Andrew H who wrote (13792)1/26/1998 9:53:00 PM
From: Henry Niman  Respond to of 32384
 
Merger Mania seems to be rampant:

Mergers hit record pace

U.S. companies spent $333 billion last
year on purchasing overseas firms

January 26, 1998: 1:30 p.m. ET

Compaq to buy
DEC - Jan. 26,
1998

Big bank merger
hits Canada - Jan.
23, 1998

KPMG LLP

More related
sites...
NEW YORK, Jan 25 (Reuters) - U.S.-led
companies spent a record $333 billion to acquire
firms in other countries in 1997, and the momentum
is likely to continue well into this year, according to
accounting giant Klynveld Peat Marwick Goerdeler
LLP (KPMG).
The 1997 acquisitions total was up 21 percent
from the previous all-time high of $275 billion in the
prior year.
Cross-border purchasers also announced a
record 48 so-called "mega-deals" worth a total $119
billion, up 29 percent from 1996.
All the mega-deals were priced at $1 billion or
more, according to the accounting firm's latest
year-end survey of such transactions.
The average cross-border purchase cost a record
$64 million, soaring 39 percent to break last year's
record $46 million.
Notably, purchasers invested heavily in more
countries than in 1996, stepping up merger and
acquisitions in the fourth quarter.
"Goliaths in various regulated fields attracted
many of the largest cross-border prices," KPMG
said. "Purchasers of targets in developing countries
shifted their sights from the Pacific Rim to Latin
America . . . where spending almost doubled in 1997
while spending in the Pacific Rim fell by more than 20
percent. For the first time, the two regions are
attracting roughly equal amounts of M&A spending."
However, despite the global M&A boom, deals
targeting U.S. companies declined for the first time in
five years because of the strong U.S. dollar, KPMG
said.
For the first time in the 1990s, neither Germany
nor Japan ranked among the top six countries in
M&A spending.
During the fourth quarter, M&A spending soared
35 percent to $123 billion from $91 billion in the
year-ago period.
The rumored merger of U.S.-based American
Home Products and British-based SmithKline
Beecham disclosed this week would be the largest
deal of all time.
"It's hard to be global and nimble without an
aggressive M&A strategy," Stephen Blum, a KPMG
partner, said. "Technology and competition cut
months or years off product life cycles, and
regulatory change in fields such as utilities and
banking unleashes major new players to cross
borders."
Globally, financial services firms were the most
heavily targeted segment in 1997 with buyers
spending $34 billion on targets in banking and
finance, and $24 billion on insurance targets, up a
combined 60 percent from 1996, KPMG said.



To: Andrew H who wrote (13792)1/27/1998 4:50:00 AM
From: Henry Niman  Respond to of 32384
 
Andy, The WSJ Interactive suggests that more of LGND's partners may be "in play":

The Wall Street Journal Interactive Edition -- January 24, 1998
Talk of Pharmaceuticals Merger
May Pave Way for Further Deals

An INTERACTIVE JOURNAL News Roundup

Global consolidation in the pharmaceutical industry moved to the forefront
this week as SmithKline Beecham PLC and American Home Products
Corp. disclosed they have held merger talks.

If consummated, the deal would create the world's largest drug company
and mark the biggest corporate combination in history.

Discussions between the two firms began in early November, but cooled a
few weeks later because of disagreements over price and other issues,
according to people familiar with the matter. American Home, based in
Madison, N.J, is valued at about $61 billion, slightly less than
London-based SmithKline's market capitalization of about $65 billion.

The talks also suggest the drug industry could
be in for another dose of merger mania. After
anxiety about health-care cost containment
and the headache of marketing to the
managed-care industry inspired a rash of
blockbuster mergers in the mid-1990s, the
urge to merge in the drug industry has waned
as companies found profit relief in a two-year
stretch of hearty sales. The last megadeal, the
marriage of Sandoz Pharmaceuticals and
Ciba-Geigy, gave birth to Novartis AG in late
1995.

Now the top candidates for consolidation
include Schering-Plough, WarnerLambert and
Eli Lilly, the solid middle tier of the industry
whose companies face an uphill struggle to
reach the top ranks and compete with such
industry giants as Merck, Glaxo Wellcome
and Novartis.

Looming "patent expirations, and the pace and cost of technology
development all require more financial muscle," said Steven Gerber,
drug-industry analyst at CIBC Oppenheimer. "It's quite clear to us that a
considerable amount of additional consolidation has to occur."

Mariola Haggar of Deutsche Morgan Grenfell said "If this merger
materializes, it clearly puts pressure on other companies to review their
critical mass and competitive position." Size, she argues, is crucial for
companies to compete both for market share and for investment dollars in
the global marketplace.

To be sure, betting on a new round of deals carries plenty of risk for
investors, not least of which is the uncertain prospect that the American
Home-SmithKline transaction will actually be completed. Few analysts
were recommending drug-company shares as takeover plays. One analyst,
David Lippman at Prudential Securities, said he doesn't believe any new
round of mergers is imminent.

Other Deals

In other transactions, Hicks, Muse, Tate & Furst Inc. and Kohlberg
Kravis Roberts & Co., are combining the movie-theater chains they are
acquiring and plan to purchase Regal Cinemas Cos. in a transaction that
will create the biggest movie-theater chain in the U.S. The surprise move
will form a company with 5,347 screens in 727 locations -- an estimated
17% of the screens in the country.

St. Paul Cos., a Midwestern property and casualty insurer, said that it
agreed to acquire USF&G Corp., a Baltimore insurer, in a stock swap
valued at $2.8 billion, or $22 a share.

Arthur Andersen, the accounting unit of Andersen Worldwide, will seek a
roughly $10 billion payment, technology royalties and return of the
Andersen name as part of the price of granting a divorce to Andersen
Consulting, an Arthur Andersen partner said.

And Dick Strong, founder of the Strong Funds group, has talked to
investment bankers and confirms he is exploring options for the
mutual-funds firm.

Earnings

Chrysler Corp. said Friday its fourth-quarter net income rose 5.6%,
beating Wall Street estimates, although some of the company's profits
came from one-time gains. And Xerox Corp. announced a
better-than-expected 23% jump in fourth-quarter earnings and raised its
quarterly dividend.

For a complete look at recent corporate earnings stories, the earnings
calander and earnings surprises, see our Earnings Focus page.

Talking Points

Boeing has dropped plans to further ramp up its commercial-jetliner
production in late 1998. It expects to sustain record assembly rates
over the next few years, CEO Phil Condit says.
Wall Street firms will soon face new accusations, backed by
statistics, that they haven't done enough to create a more diverse
work force. The U.S. Commission on Civil Rights is preparing a
major study on Wall Street's record in hiring African-Americans
and other racial minorities.
Raytheon said it will eliminate 9,700 jobs, about 8% of its
workforce, and close at least 20 plants, in an effort to consolidate
recent acquisitions.
Edward J. DeBartolo Jr., before winning a Louisiana casino license,
obtained confidential records detailing competitors' finances,
according to people familiar with the matter.
Mattel beat out Hasbro to sign an exclusive NBA licensing deal,
according to company and NBA officials.
Three major ad agencies, Foote, Cone & Belding, Grey Advertising
and Rubin Postaer & Associates, have settled FTC charges of
deceptive advertising by agreeing to stop putting upfront
auto-leasing costs in a blur of small print in their television ads.
Charles Schwab backed off from its plan to add research reports
from some full-service securities firms to its on-line trading site after
the firms, including Merrill Lynch, said they objected.



To: Andrew H who wrote (13792)1/27/1998 5:11:00 AM
From: Henry Niman  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 32384
 
Andy, The WSJI story includes LLY and WLA in the list of merger candidates. For LGND, a LLY/WLA combo would be interesting for the diabetes area. Such a merger could use molecular partnering (Rexinoids from LLY with TZDs from WL) as a basis for a corporate merger. That would be a rather unique driver.



To: Andrew H who wrote (13792)1/27/1998 2:00:00 PM
From: Proton  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 32384
 
Re: Where to be in January

Too bad the merger is not helping LGND any.

Here are some YTD numbers to ponder:

Drug Index +8.1%
Biotech Index -2.9%
Ligand Pharm. -7.8%

To go back to Shakespeare, we can hope that, "The cat will mew, and
the dog shall have his day." Right now, though, a lot of money that
might have run after biotechs is finding better pickings in the drug
group. You can bet that is going to include institutions.

Indeed, ethical drug merger mania may be hurting LGND. It's hard to
argue with a 16% disparity in performance (or even the 5% underperformance
relative to the BTK... but we can just call that the droloxifene
effect. :-O )

"The droloxifene news is a disappointment and creates a question about
the drug's potential for the other two indications Pfizer is still
pursuing," said A.G. Edwards drug analyst Kenneth Nover.