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Politics : Sioux Nation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (325120)	4/8/2020 5:18:04 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 360941

We are at a stage where every state is in its own phase. NYC is stabilizing, while Louisiana is peaking. To do it right, I now have to build a model specific to each state and then tally up the estimates. I just don't have time for that. Even the states that I am estimating, are not really accurate models.. I knew the numbers won't add up b/c I have not had time to properly build the model...it is just a rough approximation. The only consolation prize may be that I seem to be more accurate than IHME, and those guys are the gurus...so you will just have to live with my imperfections ;)

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (325120)

4/8/2020 9:26:12 PM

From: Sun Tzu

1 Recommendation

Recommended By
Arthur Radley

Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 360941

Current data, right off the press :)

Prediction of 433,484 vs actual report of 433,267

USA Total	433,267	+31,020	14,743	+1,925	396,009	1,309	45	2,195,926	6,634
New York	151,171	+8,787	6,268	+779	130,323	7,706	319	365,153	18,613	[ 1] [ 2] [ 3] [ 4] [ 5] [ 6] [ 7] [ 8] [ 9]
New Jersey	47,437	+3,021	1,504	+272	45,841	5,341	169	100,326	11,296	[ 1] [ 2]
Michigan	20,346	+1,376	959	+114	19,318	2,043	96	50,332	5,055	[ 1] [ 2] [ 3]
California	18,830	+1,370	498	+64	17,392	481	13	143,800	3,673	[ 1] [ 2]
Louisiana	17,030	+746	652	+70	16,328	3,652	140	81,406	17,456	[ 1]
Massachusetts	16,790	+1,588	433	+77	16,347	2,458	63	87,511	12,812	[ 1] [ 2]
Pennsylvania	16,239	+1,294	310	+60	15,795	1,270	24	98,538	7,704	[ 1] [ 2] [ 3] [ 4]
Florida	15,698	+951	323	+27	15,275	762	16	144,570	7,019	[ 1] [ 2]
Illinois	15,078	+1,529	462	+82	14,566	1,176	36	75,066	5,855	[ 1] [ 2] [ 3] [ 4]
Georgia	10,189	+1,033	369	+21	9,789	989	36	38,787	3,767	[ 1] [ 2] [ 3]
Texas	9,823	+884	191	+24	8,874	352	7	96,258	3,452	[ 1] [ 2] [ 3] [ 4] [ 5] [ 6] [ 7] [ 8] [ 9]