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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (156225)	4/9/2020 4:12:54 AM
From: sense	Respond to of 217561

Same chart series for XAU. Daily chart MACD shows gold was a "controlled" trade with MACD steady near the zero line until week of Feb 14. It broke the week before the stock market drop, MACD pinching to a peak on Fed 24, gold falling with the market from there, but then has remained oddly angular, pinching again now, so near a peak in gold short term, but the MACD pinch now is not as accelerated as the last one. The -DI also showing its due for a break lower... I'd say "soon" based on the chart... but maybe just a move down to 83 or so ? But waiting on the ADX line and -Di to break before you can judge the acceleration. My guess is the oil charts this week will have more to say about gold than the gold charts will... I'd look for prior chart correlations to judge how oil market moves might alter the gold trade over the next week. Daily: Note on the weekly chart that the "controlled market" function in gold was very solid... MACDs stuck to the zero lines... until suddenly in 2018. [Same function occurs in oil in reverse, with the break in the opposite... lots of noise in the chart prior to 2015... then "controlled"... with steps lower in price over time... as shale oil sat on the trade and prevented volatility with growing supply.] Would be fun to waste some time trying to correlate the MACD wiggles in weekly gold with the emergence of the Repo debacle... The -DI shows gold peaked in February, +DI moving up, so it isn't in danger of a peak or a bottom, solidly in trading ranges for now. Chart says it will probably head back onto trend from 2018. Don't see any suggestion of huge moves ahead... but as MACD corners... and it move higher... it will be moving back inside the zero lines... If it does so with the same pattern as the left of the chart... only inside the zero lines... steady up in the future. For now, not buying the "currency reset" stories... because that's mostly based on errors in understanding about the dollar function in relation to the global economy, not the U.S. domestic economy. But it does matter that we're shifting from the deflationary impacts of QE sucking dollars out of the world... to QE alternatives that are actually inflationary enough on a global basis to stop the global depression from deepening... After having dominantly deflationary policy since 2008, I doubt the world is ready to feel what inflation is like again... mostly meaning it might be a while before gold prices begin to reflect it... Accelerations in other markets, obviously, might change that view... but its not showing "major bbreak out moves" here. Draw a trend line from Sept 2018 to Feb 2020... and that's as decent a projection as this chart contains... but how much better is that trend than the one from 2017 to July 2018 ? Weekly: