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Pastimes : The Philosophical Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rarebird who wrote (10294)	4/9/2020 7:57:58 PM
From: Rarebird	Respond to of 26251

My base case is that this will be a V shaped recovery. That is to say, I expect the virus to be short lived and economic activity to rebound quite quickly. There is a lot of stimulus in the system and I like the response from the Fed and Treasury. More importantly, I like what the stock market is telling me. Stock markets always rebound first before economic activity and that is what I am seeing now. In 2010, subprime mortgage defaults peaked a year after the stock market began to rally. I suppose there is an outside chance of a U shaped recovery, where recovery takes longer to start and we see a prolonged economic malaise. But the A/D line and breadth thrusts are telling me a different story. Call me nuts if you will, but I see a new Bull market being born right in front of my eyes while most see a bear market rally. If it's a bull, we will see 3200-3300 SPX before we see a close below SPX 2700.