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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: blankmind who wrote (32161)	1/26/1998 11:25:00 PM
From: Jurgen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 61433

...i would expect technology stocks to begin to rebound soon .. I hope you're right. ASND sure needs a kick! Cramer/TheStreet alredy spotted some "subtle indications".. (from fnews.yahoo.com Is Technology Getting Ready to Make a Move? By Dave Kansas Editor-in-Chief Sure, Denver won the big game and all the trackers of the Super Bowl indicator are getting nervous. But in the face of a rough day for the Nasdaq, the market is offering subtle indications that a positive turn for technology could be at hand. That's certainly a tough argument to make right now. Asia still looms as a big problem and on Monday Com-bombs were pulverizing the Nasdaq list. ADC Telecom (Nasdaq:ADCT - news) lost 40%, Vestcom (Nasdaq:VESC - news) plunged 60%. Just about every Com out there was having a tough day, from WorldCom (Nasdaq:WCOM - news) to 3Com (Nasdaq:COMS - news) . Concerns about regional Bell operating companies' lower spending on infrastructure improvements are crushing the important networking sector. But apart from the severe damage in the Com group, technology bulls had some good news to chew on. Compaq (NYSE:CPQ - news) said it would acquire ailing Digital Equipment (NYSE:DEC - news) . While Compaq lost about 10%, DEC soared, and the Compaq move indicated that enriched technology companies are definitely in vulture mode. More important, it looks like two bellwether technology stocks are starting to make decisive moves higher: Intel (Nasdaq:INTC - news) and Microsoft (Nasdaq:MSFT - news) . For some time we've maintained that it would be tough for technology to regain a leadership role without Intel. Intel is a prime provider of basic elements involved in the technology revolution. If personal computer sales are weakening or capital spending plans are fading, then Intel has a tougher sales road ahead. So when its stock starts rebounding, that reflects market sentiment that Intel's sales prospects are improving. The chip giant has languished since last September. Back on Sept. 23 it clipped 99 1/8, just shy of its July move above 100. The stock slumped to 69 1/8 on Dec. 18 and has steadily fought higher since then. Today Intel closed at 77 11/16, its highest finish in nearly two months. And Microsoft, despite the Justice Department probe, rose on Monday to a level not seen since Dec. 10, gaining 3 9/16 to 141 3/4. Investors cheered the software giant's plan to split its stock 2-for-1, but there's a growing feeling among investors that Microsoft will figure out a way to placate the Justice Department without hurting its business prospects. Given Intel's move higher and Microsoft's renewed strength, the tech bulls might start nudging their way back into view. Certainly it's a tough argument to make on a day when the Ciscos of the world are getting kicked around. But these kinds of market turns have a habit of sneaking up on people.

To: blankmind who wrote (32161)	1/26/1998 11:54:00 PM
From: Gary Korn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 61433

Blankmind, Thank you for your comments regarding whether the end of the networking correction is or is not in sight. You've always been very perceptive, so I'm hoping you are right again. One piece of data that continues to offer me some comfort is the one I posted a week or two ago about ATM equipment sales growth. I don't have the chart readily at hand, but ATM sales are predicted to increase from about $2B this year to $5 or $6B in about 3 years. ASND has about a 25% market share, so one could anticipate strong growth in just that sector for several years to come. (ASND mgmt. has indicated that ATM will "cross" RAS sales this year, meaning that ATM will have to account for about $750MM of 1998 sales, or 25% of a $3B 1998 market. The same percentage of a $4.5B 1999 market would be $1.125B in sales in ATM alone for ASND (about equal to ASND's entire 1997 sales.) I don't know what the point of the above is, other than to reassure myself that the internet -- and the internet infrastructure -- really is growing and is not withering away as is the NWX. Gary Korn