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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (1218999)	4/10/2020 2:29:03 PM
From: RetiredNow	2 Recommendations Recommended By FJB locogringo Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1576592

Death rate from flu is about 0.1%. Right now, for Covid in the US, it's 3.68%. That's partly because we aren't testing asymptomatic people, but this is much deadlier than flu. - Wharf Rat Wrong, Wharf Rat. Any scientist or statistician will tell you that this estimate is very wrong. Do you know what selection bias is? That's when the sample you are using to extrapolate to the population is a biased sample, because it has been selected from a portion of the population that is not representative of the population as a whole. In this case, the denominator of that 3.68% that you quote is biased in that it comes from people that have been tested and then later died. So let's do a thought experiment to help you understand why this is wrong. Let's use these numbers as our scenario: * 100,000 have been tested * 3,680 have later died of COVID * So everyone concludes the mortality rate is 3,680 / 100,000 = 3.68% Except for one problem. There may be 900,000 other people out there who got COVID, but were either asymptomatic or experienced very mild symptoms, and therefore, never got tested. So now if we include those folks in our sample what do we get? * 3,680 / 1,000,000 = 0.368% But the flu has a recorded mortality rate of 0.1%, so this is still 3-4 times more deadly, right? Nope. Because let's say, we have another 9,000,000 people in our country who never got COVID and never will, in this scenario. So if we include all those, then what do we get? * 3,680 / 10,000,000 = 0.0368% Now that is less of a mortality rate than the flu. So we just shut down our entire economy and put tens of millions of people out of work and thrust them into life of poverty to save people from a COVID death that was likely coming for them anyway, because they are elderly or have heart or lung disease and were immunocompromised to begin with? How many millions will die from poverty related ailments now that we've created the Greatest Depression in our mass hysteria? Who will hold the liberals accountable for first fanning the flames of that hysteria and then fooling everyone into believing that our government could keep us safe, when that is NEVER the case? Liberals, Democrats, and the Chinese will be judged harshly for their actions when the history books are written on COVID.