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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Slide Rule who wrote (13524)	1/27/1998 9:38:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 94695

Hi SR; There is merit several ways, I've tried them and setteled for market cap, ( not saying it's always the best ) but I can't keep up with more than one time wise and it seems to have an edge more often. The main thing is I break the dow in half looking at the 10 Mega caps, seperate from the 20 smaller ones like it's two indexes in one. The rate of movement between the Mega and the other I call the Tail, is revealing. I also look at ( eyeball ) the volume on the A/Ds , THe top ten has over twice the cap, of the bottom 20 put together, thats were the "votes" are..it can get negitive votes, while the bottom 20 gets enough positive ones to jack up or prop up the index. In effect it's easy to see when the DOW has a price that the widely held stocks don't reflect. You may notice this to some extent when you see the S&P 100 trickel down while the Dow goes up, or the other way around but it's not as clear. This is not a do all end all sure thing, it's just one indicator, ( My main one) BUT the currency, Bond market, geneneral A/D , foreign markets, and futures need to confirm, or at least not conflict with it, or bets are off. ( exception for time being the bond market has inversed from it's normal effect ) Lots of people have not caught that yet. Jim