Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Biotech / Medical : Coronavirus / COVID-19 Pandemic -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Triffin who wrote (914)	4/11/2020 10:20:16 PM
From: Wharf Rat	6 Recommendations Recommended By abuelita Brumar89 emertius Moonray Triffin and 1 more member Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 22882

He lost me at "President Trump and his pandemic response team did a fantastic job over the past few weeks limiting the number of COVID-19 deaths to around 55,000" Trump and his team didn't do a fucking thing. Mayor and governors did it all. He lost his chance for "good job" about 20,000 deaths ago. Jan. 30: “We think we have it very well under control. We have very little problem in this country at this moment — five — and those people are all recuperating successfully. But we’re working very closely with China and other countries, and we think it’s going to have a very good ending for us … that I can assure you.” — Trump in a speech in Michigan.

To: Triffin who wrote (914)	4/11/2020 11:18:27 PM
From: zax	Respond to of 22882

>> This guy's analysis was spot on when he posted the following article on Mar 20th 2020 . On March 19, seeing explosive exponential growth in infections and death coming from the data was not difficult for anyone with experience in statistics. The $1T economic stimulus passed that day might have also served as a small hint. His projection ("model") was off - overly conservative - he called for 1000 deaths every day by April 15th; we hit 1000 dead per day starting on April 4, and 2000 per day by April 11. He said the market hadn't nearly priced in 1000 deaths per day, yet Nasdaq is 15% higher today than when he made this call on March 20th (there had been 55 deaths that day). We are looking at 2000 deaths for the current 24 hour period beginning this morning again, so he was clearly wrong on this point as well. Where is it exactly that you think he was spot on? Him calling his own estimate a 'proof' was absurd. I don't know if we are past the market bottom yet or not, but I won't fight the tape, and the market has been going up for two weeks now. Even if we do bottom out lower, in a year we will be recovered. I'd rather be long right now, even if we are not at the bottom, because being long and wrong now only means you'll have to hold the stocks a little longer to make money. Being short the market and wrong right now means you will lose money, and have stressful days watching your liabilities increase. I don't enjoy that sort of stress. I do not believe we are in a situation nearly as bad as the subprime crisis of 2007-2008 with respect to the markets. The human toll... that's another matter.

To: Triffin who wrote (914)	4/18/2020 10:25:45 PM
From: Triffin	3 Recommendations Recommended By Glenn Petersen lightshipsailor skinowski Respond to of 22882

NYC can restart finance.yahoo.com ==== Key take away from the article ==== If COVID-19’s IFR is 1%, this implies that 20% of New Yorkers already contracted the virus and most of these people survived. If the infection fatality rate is 0.5%, this implies that 40% of New York City is already immune to COVID-19. Finally, if the Santa Clara County study is right and COVID-19’s CFR is around 0.25%, then this implies that 80% of New York City residents are already immune to the virus. This means there is a non-trivial possibility that New York City is close to achieving herd immunity. This is a game changer for New Yorkers. If that’s indeed the case, they can right away cancel the “stay at home” order and literally go back to normal. ==== Triff ..