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Non-Tech : APCO Automobile Protection Company -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Doug R who wrote (892)	1/27/1998 10:01:00 PM
From: TATRADER	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3351

Doug, thanks for your indepth response on APCO....Let me make one thing clear, I do not have a position in this stock at present...In fact, if I short this one at all, it will be on an earnings run to the 7.50 level....Looking then to cover in the 6.75-6.87 area... I don't know if you have ever seen Farside, but I recall one picture where this guy named Doug is hiding behind a tree as the mailman approaches...A sign on the tree reads, "Beware of Doug".... I don't think I need to beware since you know your stuff, and it is a pleasure to interact with you....I trade solely to win, money is secondary...My passion(sounds a bit crazy) it to totally tear a stock apart and find out what makes it tick...I am here to learn from you, not challenge you... When we measure the mature trend of APCO, one can indeed go back to June of 97...That would give a base for the trendline of 6.50 or 6.58 as you quoted...Up to this point that trendline has not been violated by 3%...Most likely then a pullback to that level could occur with no detrimental effect to the long-term trend... However, when a mature trending stock has an ADX below 30, i use a 3 month trendline as a more reliable indicator...This gives me a violation of 3%, as 7.50 would only make allowances for a close of 7.27 or higher...The stock has sat several days below 7.27... As we both know an uptrending stock usually slumps into a trendline on low volume and then reverses angrily to the upside on accelerating volume...We have not had the opportunity lately to see the test of 6.50, but I believe that day is coming...Further, I agree that when a trendline is violated to the downside, it is done so on accelerating volume.. However, I have witnessed on many occasions, a large amount of volume and no real price movement either up or down on a mature uptrending or downtrending stock...To me this speaks of either accumulation or distribution...On an uptrending stock, distribution, on a downtrending stock, accumulation...Recently, I shorted BFIT in the 20.00 area... It has seen a lot of volume with no real movement up or down...Today, it started its descent to my first target area...Same with VOXW.... Likewise on a mature downtrending stock, a lot of volume and no price movement smacks of accumulation...Recently, I called GATE at 50 cents to be a screaming buy, as there was heavy volume and no movment...GATE, quickly moved above the 2.00 level.... Yes, RSI makes use of closing prices and not intraday peaks..But if you study the RSI of this stock, you will observe three declining peaks..This goes along with the three declining peaks on the ADX.. To put it simply the trend is weakening... Last year when I road GRNO from 1.50 to 9.75, the stock had a similar pattern to APCO...Thanks goodness this company to my knowledge has honest management, unlike GRNO...As you know on a mature trend and sideways markets, oscillators are at their best...Today we again had a bearish divergence with price on the Ultimate Oscillator and the Pring KST....If this stock makes an earnings run, I may indeed back what I say with money on the short side....Take care.... Mark P.S. I don't know if I can answer all the posts to me tonight, since I still have to walk dog and smoke cigar...Wife also gave me ultimatum...