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Technology Stocks : Dupont Photomasks (DPMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Bloxom who wrote (95)	1/27/1998 8:50:00 AM
From: jeffbas	Respond to of 955

Yes, I saw that announcement, which is why I decided to take an initial position when the opening gap was closed late in the day. This looks to confer a "razor-blade" type monopy on DPMI. Aside from the 1/3 cheaper valuation measures than PLAB, this Dupont relationship is what really caught my eye, as having all sorts of advantages. According to 10K, R&D access for 5 years from IPO, $100 million unused line of credit at LIBOR plus 1/4%, etc. I know ETEC quite well - super volatile. With large backlog, any single cancellation or push out of order does not mean much fundamentally. Hower, Wall Street perception is something else. 1 1/4 years ago, a testing delay cost the stock 14 points in one day, although, because of backlog it only meant a one quarter problem. I could well see a pushout of some order, which is why I am afraid of stock - it well could be back at $30. In other words, in an uncertain market for this business, I would only consider ETEc on an "event". (That does not mean to say DPMI wouldn't also go down, but it already has dropped 15 more points from its high and is, in my opinion, far closer to traditional investment value than ETEC, and has a stabler business model.) I really do not know the other companies. One question - If a "direct writing" approach were ever developed commercially, it would seem that ETEC and DPMI would be in big trouble. But what about ASMLF and CYMI? Is this an argument for low p/e's on all these companies, as their businesses are likely to have a limited lifespan? (Like an oil well.) I'd appreciate your opinion here as I see this as the biggest long term risk. Any other major long term risks you see?

To: John Bloxom who wrote (95)	1/27/1998 3:34:00 PM
From: fellow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 955

>>I like both of these companies. They're in sightly different positions in the feeding chain, but in the chain none-the-less. The chip and logic people need smaller geometries and so need ASMLF, Canon and Nikon to sell the steppers incorporating the Cymer lasers into which is inserted the DPMI/PLAB mask that is fabricated with ETEC equipment. Over the long haul, absent the unexpected, I see all of these companies greatly appreciating in value. I also believe that it is safer to own them all than it is to own less than all.<< John- I like your style. Right now, I own cymi and amat, but I'm considering dpmi, plab, etec, and asmlf. <<off topic>> what do you think of vtss and amcc? pria and ter? brooks automation? kla-tencor? DPMI seems more attractive to me than PLAB because of the 70% DuPont ownership and the integration of photomask and pellicle (just learned that one). -fellow